# Flood risk in England

How many properties sit in areas at risk of flooding across England, from the Environment Agency's 2024 national assessment. Around 6.3 million properties, homes and businesses, are in areas at risk from rivers, the sea and surface water. This page shows the split by source of flooding, how the high risk properties fall across the nine English regions, and how the total could rise to around 8 million by the middle of the century as the climate changes.

Source page: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/flood-risk
Machine readable data: https://britishresilienceindex.com/data/deep-dive/flood-risk.json

## How to read this

These are the headline figures from the Environment Agency's National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024, known as NaFRA2. A property is counted as being in an area at risk if it sits within the modelled flood outline for a given source and likelihood. Surface water and rivers and the sea are assessed separately, so a property can appear in both. The 6.3 million total already nets out that overlap and is not the sum of the two source figures.

## About 6.3 million properties at risk

The Environment Agency's 2024 national assessment finds that around 6.3 million properties in England, homes and businesses, are in areas at risk of flooding from one or a combination of sources: rivers, the sea and surface water. That total nets out the properties exposed to more than one source. It is not the sum of the separate source figures, because about 750,000 properties sit in areas at risk both from rivers or the sea and from surface water, and counting them once avoids double counting.

- **Total m**: 6.3
- **Multi source**: 750,000

## Surface water reaches the most properties

Surface water, the rain that overwhelms drains and runs off hard ground before it can soak away, puts the largest number of properties in an area at risk, around 4.6 million. Rivers and the sea together account for around 2.4 million. About 750,000 properties fall inside both, so the two figures overlap and cannot simply be added. In practice a single flood often mixes sources, as high river levels can hold back surface water drainage.

**Bars**

| name | value | label |
|---|---|---|
| Surface water | 4,600,000 | 4.6m properties |
| Rivers and the sea | 2,400,000 | 2.4m properties |
| Both (multiple sources) | 750,000 | about 750,000 |

- **Note**: The two source totals overlap by about 750,000 properties, so they sum to more than the 6.3 million headline. Groundwater is not included in the Environment Agency's new total.

## Most at risk properties face a low annual chance

The assessment sorts properties into risk bands by the chance of flooding in any given year. High risk means worse than a 1 in 30 chance each year; very low risk means better than 1 in 1,000. About 367,900 properties are at high risk from rivers and the sea, and about 1.1 million are at high risk from surface water. Most properties in an area at risk sit in the lower bands, where flooding is less likely in any single year but still possible over a lifetime.

**Rivers sea**

| band | chance | properties | sharePct |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | greater than 3.3 per cent (worse than 1 in 30 a year) | 367,900 | 15.1 |
| Medium | 1 per cent to 3.3 per cent (1 in 30 to 1 in 100) | 323,300 | 13.3 |
| Low | 0.1 per cent to 1 per cent (1 in 100 to 1 in 1000) | 966,500 | 39.7 |
| Very low | less than 0.1 per cent (better than 1 in 1000) | 777,300 | 31.9 |

**Surface water**

| band | chance | properties | sharePct |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | greater than 3.3 per cent (worse than 1 in 30 a year) | 1,071,800 | 23.3 |
| Medium | 1 per cent to 3.3 per cent (1 in 30 to 1 in 100) | 884,800 | 19.2 |
| Low | 0.1 per cent to 1 per cent (1 in 100 to 1 in 1000) | 2,644,000 | 57.5 |

- **Note**: Present day figures without climate change. Rivers and the sea are assessed across four bands; surface water is not assessed at the very low band, so no very low figure is published for it.

## Where the high risk properties are

The Environment Agency publishes the high risk properties, those facing worse than a 1 in 30 chance of flooding each year, broken down by the nine English regions. The bars below combine the high risk counts from rivers and the sea and from surface water. London carries the largest high risk count, driven almost entirely by surface water. The East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber and the South East also stand out. The Environment Agency does not publish a total across all risk bands by region, and there is no local authority table of property counts in this release.

| name | riversSea | surfaceWater | combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | 27,800 | 319,800 | 347,600 |
| East of England | 28,100 | 170,600 | 198,700 |
| South East | 68,100 | 127,900 | 196,000 |
| North West | 34,900 | 123,300 | 158,200 |
| East Midlands | 67,900 | 67,600 | 135,500 |
| South West | 47,200 | 86,500 | 133,700 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 64,600 | 62,300 | 126,900 |
| West Midlands | 20,700 | 73,900 | 94,600 |
| North East | 8,600 | 39,900 | 48,500 |

- **Note**: High risk band only (worse than a 1 in 30 annual chance), present day. Combined count of rivers and sea plus surface water. The rivers and sea regional figures sum to 367,900 and the surface water regional figures sum to 1,071,800. Figures for the lower bands and for individual local authorities are not published in this release.

## Could rise to around 8 million by the 2050s

With climate change the Environment Agency estimates the total number of properties in areas at risk from rivers and the sea or surface water could rise to around 8 million by the middle of the century, roughly 1 in 4 properties in England. Properties at risk from rivers and the sea could climb from 2.4 million to about 3.1 million, and those at risk from surface water from 4.6 million to about 6.1 million, with the overlap between the two sources growing to about 1 million properties.

- **Present**: 6,300,000
- **Mid century**: 8,000,000
**Components**

| name | present | future | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rivers and the sea | 2,400,000 | 3,100,000 | 2036 to 2069 |
| Surface water | 4,600,000 | 6,100,000 | 2040 to 2060 |

- **Note**: Mid century projections apply the central climate change allowance. The Environment Agency reports each source over its own modelling window: rivers and the sea for 2036 to 2069, surface water for 2040 to 2060.

## For flood policy

- Around 6.3 million properties already sit in areas at risk of flooding. Is flood defence investment and planning keeping pace with the number of properties exposed?
- Surface water puts the most properties at risk, around 4.6 million, yet it is managed by many different bodies. Who is accountable when drains and roads, not rivers, are the source of a flood?
- The total could reach around 8 million properties by the middle of the century. How much of that rise can be avoided by where and how new homes are built?
- About 750,000 properties face more than one source of flooding at once. Are the warnings, insurance and defences these households rely on designed for a single source or for the combination they actually face?

## Sources

- National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024 (NaFRA2), Environment Agency (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-assessment-of-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-in-england-2024/national-assessment-of-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-in-england-2024) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024, accessible PDF (44 pages), Environment Agency (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6797a4e6e0edc3fbb060633c/E03253099_EA_Flood_Coastal_Erosion_Risk_Assessment_accessible_v2.pdf) · Open Government Licence v3.0

## Caveats and data notes

- Figures are the Environment Agency's headline national totals for England, transcribed from the NaFRA2 2024 report. A property in an area at risk is not certain to flood: risk bands describe the chance of flooding in a given year.
- The 6.3 million total already accounts for properties exposed to more than one source. The rivers and sea figure of 2.4 million and the surface water figure of 4.6 million overlap by about 750,000 properties, so they are not summed.
- The Environment Agency states the new assessment is not directly comparable with previous assessments because it uses much better data and improved modelling.
- Groundwater is excluded from the new total. Coastal erosion, about 2,000 properties at risk of being lost by 2060, is assessed separately and is not part of the flooding property total.
- Regional figures cover the high risk band only. The Environment Agency does not publish an all bands property total by region, and no local authority property counts are published in this release, so finer geography is not shown here.
- Mid century projections use the central climate change allowance and are reported over source specific windows (rivers and the sea 2036 to 2069, surface water 2040 to 2060).

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British Resilience Index, a non-partisan UK civic data project. Every figure is
reconciled to its primary official publisher before it is shown. Free to cite with
attribution: https://britishresilienceindex.com