# Food prices in the UK: why the shopping bill never went back down

Why the weekly shop still costs so much more than it did before the cost of living crisis, from the Office for National Statistics Consumer Prices Index. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are now rising at 1.7 per cent a year, down from a peak of 19.1 per cent in March 2023. But the annual rate falling does not mean prices fell: the overall price level is 38.3 per cent higher than in January 2020 and has not come back down.

Source page: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/food-prices
Machine readable data: https://britishresilienceindex.com/data/deep-dive/food-prices.json

## How to read this

There is a difference between the inflation rate and the price level, and it is the single most misread number in this area. The annual rate measures how fast prices are still rising compared with a year earlier. When that rate falls, as it has since early 2023, it means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are falling. The actual level of prices, what the shop floor charges, is set out here as a cumulative rise since January 2020 (indexed to 100 at that point). It dipped slightly for a short period after that, then climbed without a break from 2022 onwards, and remains far above where it started even while the annual rate has come down sharply from its peak.

## Prices are 38.3 per cent higher than in January 2020

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in the UK rose 1.7 per cent in the 12 months to June 2026, the official ONS figure, down from 2.2 per cent the month before and well below the 19.1 per cent peak reached in March 2023. That fall in the annual rate is real, but it describes the speed of price rises, not the price itself. The CPI index for food and non-alcoholic beverages stood at 104.1 in January 2020 and 144.0 in June 2026 (2015 equals 100 on the ONS scale), a cumulative rise of 38.3 per cent, derived by this site from the ONS index. Prices dipped a little below their January 2020 level during the pandemic, by as much as 1.2 per cent in December 2020, but have climbed without a break since the current inflation surge began in 2022. A slower rate of increase now is not the same as a fall in what things cost.

- **Current rate pct**: 1.7
- **Peak rate pct**: 19.1
- **Cumulative pct**: 38.3

## The price level has only gone one way

This chart shows the CPI food and non-alcoholic beverages index rebased so that January 2020 equals 0 per cent, a method this site derives from the ONS's published index values (the ONS itself publishes the index on a 2015 equals 100 basis, not rebased to 2020). The index dipped a little below its January 2020 starting point during the pandemic, by as much as 1.2 per cent in December 2020 (see the caveats), but every bar shown here, from the end of 2021 onwards, sits above zero: the level has climbed without a break since the current inflation surge began in 2022, and has not fallen back since.

**Series**

| period | index | cumulativePct |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | 104.1 | 0 |
| 2021 | 107.1 | 2.9 |
| 2022 | 125.1 | 20.2 |
| 2023 | 135.1 | 29.8 |
| 2024 | 137.8 | 32.4 |
| 2025 | 144.1 | 38.4 |
| Jun 2026 | 144 | 38.3 |

- **Base period**: January 2020
- **Cumulative pct**: 38.3

## The rate peaked at 19.1 per cent and has since fallen to 1.7 per cent

The CPI annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages, the ONS's own headline measure, peaked at 19.1 per cent in March 2023 and has fallen in most months since, reaching 1.7 per cent in June 2026, its lowest since August 2024 when it was 1.3 per cent. This is the number that normally makes the news. It is not the same chart as the one above: this one can fall towards zero, or even below it, without prices ever coming down, because it only measures the pace of change, not the level.

**Series**

| period | ratePct | isPeak |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4.2 | false |
| 2022 | 16.8 | false |
| Peak, Mar 2023 | 19.1 | true |
| 2023 | 8 | false |
| 2024 | 2 | false |
| 2025 | 4.5 | false |
| Jun 2026 | 1.7 | false |

- **Peak rate pct**: 19.1
- **Peak period**: March 2023
- **Current rate pct**: 1.7

## Which foods have risen most

Every one of the ten detailed food and drink categories the ONS publishes is more expensive than in January 2020. The rise is derived by this site from each category's ONS CPI index, rebased to January 2020. Oils and fats has risen furthest, up 75.3 per cent, roughly 3.2 times the rise in fish, the smallest riser at 23.3 per cent.

| name | cumulativePct | baseIndex | nowIndex |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oils and fats | 75.3 | 106.3 | 186.3 |
| Food products not elsewhere classified | 54.2 | 102.4 | 157.9 |
| Milk, cheese and eggs | 44.3 | 100.8 | 145.5 |
| Sugar, jam, honey, syrups, chocolate and confectionery | 42.3 | 105.4 | 150 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 40.7 | 107.3 | 151 |
| Bread and cereals | 38.5 | 103.2 | 142.9 |
| Meat | 36.4 | 100.2 | 136.7 |
| Vegetables including potatoes | 35.7 | 103.3 | 140.2 |
| Fruit | 25.7 | 110.7 | 139.2 |
| Fish | 23.3 | 112.2 | 138.3 |

- **Base period**: January 2020

## Item level average prices are no longer published

Earlier versions of this analysis could have shown the average price of a loaf of bread or a litre of milk directly. That is no longer possible from primary ONS data. The individual RPI and CPI average price series for specific food items, such as milk, pasteurised, per pint (series CZNT) and eggs, per dozen (series J428), stop at January 2025 in the ONS's own time series database. ONS confirms in its June 2026 consumer price inflation bulletin that, from publication in March 2026, its Consumer price inflation consumption segment indices and price quotes dataset 'no longer includes price quote data for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco', because of its data sharing agreements with retailers now that scanner data from those retailers is used to compile the index. ONS does offer an interactive Shopping prices comparison tool covering individual items, but it is a browser tool rather than a downloadable reference table this site can reconcile against a stated figure, so it is not used here. This page therefore reports category level index movements only, not the price of any single product.

## Food takes a bigger bite out of a smaller budget

The same percentage rise in food prices does not cost every household the same. ONS Family Spending data for the financial year ending 2025 shows the poorest tenth of UK households by disposable income spent 14 per cent of their total household expenditure on food and non-alcoholic drinks, against 8 per cent for the richest tenth, and 11 per cent across all households. A household that already spends nearly twice the average share of its budget on food has far less room to absorb a price rise than one that spends half the average share.

| decile | pct |
|---|---|
| Lowest | 14 |
| Second | 14 |
| Third | 12 |
| Fourth | 12 |
| Fifth | 12 |
| Sixth | 12 |
| Seventh | 12 |
| Eighth | 10 |
| Ninth | 10 |
| Highest | 8 |

- **All households pct**: 11
- **Edition**: Financial year ending 2025

## For food prices

- The annual food inflation rate has fallen from a peak above 19 per cent to under 2 per cent, but the price level has not fallen at all. How long before household budgets adjust to a permanently higher cost of the weekly shop?
- Oils and fats has risen by far more than any other food category since January 2020. Is this driven mainly by global commodity markets, or by costs specific to the UK supply chain?
- The poorest tenth of households spend close to twice the share of their budget on food that the richest tenth do. Does a uniform national inflation rate understate the pressure on low income households, who cannot easily substitute away from food spending?
- ONS can no longer publish price quotes for individual food items because of data sharing agreements tied to scanner data from retailers. What does the loss of that transparency mean for the public's ability to check retailers' own pricing claims against independent data?

## Sources

- Consumer price inflation time series (CPI, COICOP division 01, food and non-alcoholic beverages) (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bu/mm23) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Consumer price inflation, UK: June 2026 (ONS bulletin) (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Family spending workbook 2: expenditure by income, table A8 (ONS) (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/expenditure/datasets/familyspendingworkbook2expenditurebyincome) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Consumer price inflation consumption segment indices and price quotes (ONS, discontinued for food and drink item quotes from March 2026) (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceindicescpiandretailpricesindexrpiitemindicesandpricequotes) · Open Government Licence v3.0

## Caveats and data notes

- The index dipped slightly below its January 2020 starting level during the pandemic, by as much as 1.2 per cent in December 2020, before climbing without a break from 2022 onwards. The CPI annual rate was also briefly negative, at minus 1.4 per cent in December 2020, a small price fall rather than a rise. Neither the level chart nor the rate chart on this page shows a bar for these two negative readings: both charts start their bars at the end of 2021, once each series was back above its January 2020 starting point, so that no bar needs to represent a negative value alongside much larger positive ones; both readings are disclosed here rather than shown as a chart bar.
- The cumulative rise since January 2020 shown on this page is derived by this site from the ONS's published CPI index for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which itself is set to 2015 equals 100, not to January 2020. Rebasing to January 2020 is a simple ratio of index values and does not change what the underlying ONS data says, only the reference point used to describe it.
- All figures are cash terms (nominal), not adjusted for wider inflation across the whole economy. They describe what the CPI food and drink basket costs compared with itself in the past, not what it costs relative to incomes or to prices of other goods.
- The category breakdown covers the ten detailed classes of COICOP division 01 that ONS publishes separately: bread and cereals, meat, fish, milk cheese and eggs, oils and fats, fruit, vegetables including potatoes, sugar jam and confectionery, other food products, and non-alcoholic beverages. Category weights in the overall index differ, so the ten category rises shown do not average to the single headline rise for the division.
- Item level average prices for individual food products, such as a specific loaf of bread or a pint of milk, are no longer available from ONS primary sources for this page: the relevant series stop at January 2025, and ONS confirms in its June 2026 bulletin that price quote data for food and drink was withdrawn from its detailed microdata release from March 2026 because of data sharing agreements tied to the retailer scanner data now used to compile the index.
- The income share by decile figures are for financial year ending 2025 (April 2024 to March 2025), the latest edition of the ONS Family Spending workbook available at the time this page was built, and are not adjusted for the food price rises recorded since that survey period ended.
- Figures are for the UK as a whole. ONS does not publish this CPI series by UK nation or region.

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