# Prisons in England and Wales

England and Wales locks up more people per capita than any western European country other than Scotland. Prisons are at 96 per cent of useable capacity; the population is projected to exceed operational capacity by late 2026. Nearly 70 per cent of those released after a short custodial sentence are convicted of a further offence within twelve months.

Source page: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/prisons
Machine readable data: https://britishresilienceindex.com/data/deep-dive/prisons.json

## How to read this

Population figures are the quarterly snapshot at 31 March 2026 from HMPPS Offender Management Statistics. Capacity and occupancy are from the weekly population briefing for 29 June 2026. Reoffending rates are for the April to June 2024 proven reoffending cohort, measured over the twelve months following disposal. Assault and self harm figures cover the twelve months ending March 2026, and deaths in custody the twelve months ending June 2026, from the quarterly update published on 30 July 2026. Geographic reoffending covers July 2023 to June 2024 (rolling annual, adults and children combined).

## Prisons are nearly full and the population is rising

At 31 March 2026, England and Wales held 87,342 people in custody, against a useable operational capacity of 89,120 -- an occupancy of 96.2 per cent. Central projections put the population at 91,400 by September 2026 and 99,600 by September 2029, well above current capacity. Of those held, 81.1 per cent (70,829) are serving sentences and 18.3 per cent (16,025) are on remand.

**Stats**

| value | label |
|---|---|
| 87,342 | population, 31 Mar 2026 |
| 96.2% | occupancy, 29 Jun 2026 |
| 89,120 | useable operational capacity |
| 91,400 | projected population, Sep 2026 |

**Top estabs**

| name | pop |
|---|---|
| Oakwood | 2,019 |
| Berwyn | 1,975 |
| Fosse Way | 1,962 |
| Parc B | 1,779 |
| Five Wells | 1,762 |

## Short sentences are the least effective intervention

In the April to June 2024 cohort, 29.6 per cent of all offenders given any disposal were proven to have reoffended within twelve months. The rate for those released from a custodial sentence of six months or under was 69.5 per cent -- nearly five times the rate for those given a caution (14.4 per cent). Longer sentences show markedly lower reoffending: those sentenced to twelve months or more reoffended at 23.2 per cent, because they serve time, receive more rehabilitation, and carry a greater deterrent effect.

**Disposal bars**

| label | pct | color |
|---|---|---|
| Custody 6 months or under | 69.5 | worsening |
| Custody under 12 months | 67.1 | worsening |
| Custody 6 to 12 months | 58.5 | worsening |
| Total custody (all lengths) | 44 | worsening |
| Community order | 39 | accent |
| Custody 12 months or more | 23.2 | improving |
| Caution | 14.4 | improving |

**Geography**: eyebrow reoffending by area, heading Where reoffending is highest and lowest, intro Proven reoffending rates vary almost threefold across local authorities in England and Wales (rolling year July 2023 to June 2024, all ages). Teesside towns consistently rank among the highest; rural counties in the south and Wales record the lowest rates., note County total areas with 200 or more offenders in the cohort. Small areas excluded to avoid instability from small counts.

## Violence has plateaued near the pre-Covid peak; self harm still far above it

In the twelve months to March 2026 there were 30,820 assault incidents in prison, effectively unchanged on the 30,849 recorded a year earlier. Those two years are the highest since the pandemic, though both sit below the pre-Covid peak of 32,074 reached in the twelve months to March 2019. Self harm incidents fell to 70,632 from the series peak of 77,904 a year earlier, but remain far above any pre-Covid level. In the twelve months to June 2026, 359 people died in prison custody, down from 401. Women's prisons carry a disproportionate share of self harm incidents, reflecting the concentration of complex needs in the female estate.

**Assault trend**

| year | assaults |
|---|---|
| 2,016 | 22,182 |
| 2,017 | 26,642 |
| 2,018 | 31,028 |
| 2,019 | 32,074 |
| 2,020 | 29,315 |
| 2,021 | 17,764 |
| 2,022 | 20,076 |
| 2,023 | 22,318 |
| 2,024 | 28,290 |
| 2,025 | 30,849 |
| 2,026 | 30,820 |

**Selfharm trend**

| year | selfharm |
|---|---|
| 2,016 | 34,665 |
| 2,017 | 40,413 |
| 2,018 | 46,859 |
| 2,019 | 58,030 |
| 2,020 | 63,336 |
| 2,021 | 51,846 |
| 2,022 | 53,753 |
| 2,023 | 59,720 |
| 2,024 | 73,804 |
| 2,025 | 77,904 |
| 2,026 | 70,632 |

**Stats**

| value | label |
|---|---|
| 30,820 | assaults, 12 months to Mar 2026 |
| 70,632 | self harm incidents, 12 months to Mar 2026 |
| 359 | deaths in custody, 12 months to Jun 2026 |

## What should we be asking?

- If short custodial sentences produce a proven reoffending rate of nearly 70 per cent, why does England and Wales continue to use them at scale rather than expanding community alternatives?
- The prison population is projected to exceed operational capacity by late 2026. What is the plan for managing the shortfall, and at what cost to safety and rehabilitation programmes?
- Assaults in prison have plateaued at the highest levels since the pandemic, just short of the pre-Covid peak. What systemic changes are needed in staffing, regime, and environment to reduce violence?
- Women make up under 5 per cent of the prison population but generate a disproportionate share of self harm incidents. Should women with complex needs be diverted from custody altogether?
- Reoffending in Middlesbrough (42 per cent) is nearly three times the rate in Central Bedfordshire (15 per cent). What local factors drive this gap, and what would it take to close it?

## Sources

- HMPPS -- Offender Management Statistics Quarterly: Prison Population 31 March 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026) · OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Population and Capacity Briefing 29 June 2026 (weekly population bulletin) (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prison-population-weekly-estate-figures-2026) · OGL v3
- MoJ -- Proven Reoffending Statistics April to June 2024 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024) · OGL v3
- MoJ -- Proven Reoffending: Geographic data tool (July 2013 to June 2024) (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024) · OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Safety in Custody Statistics, quarterly update to March 2026 (assaults and self harm to March 2026, deaths to June 2026) (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2026) · OGL v3
- MoJ -- Prison Population Projections 2025 to 2030 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2025-to-2030) · OGL v3

## Caveats and data notes

- Population figures (31 March 2026) are from the quarterly snapshot; the capacity and occupancy figures (96.2%) are from the weekly briefing for 29 June 2026, using that week's population against useable operational capacity of 89,120.
- Proven reoffending is measured on the cohort of offenders who received a disposal in April to June 2024, followed up for twelve months. A 'proven' reoffence is a further conviction or caution -- it does not capture undetected crime.
- The geographic reoffending league uses 'County total' areas with at least 200 offenders in the July 2023 to June 2024 rolling cohort. Smaller areas are excluded because low counts make percentages unstable.
- Safety in custody figures cover all prison establishments in England and Wales in the twelve months to March 2026. Deaths figures cover the twelve months to June 2026 (deaths run one quarter ahead of assaults and self harm in this publication). Assault and self harm figures for the twelve months to March 2025 are revised, and those to March 2026 are provisional, as marked by the publisher.
- Projections are the Ministry of Justice central scenario as published in Prison Population Projections 2025 to 2030. They assume current sentencing trends and legislative plans; the range of uncertainty is wide.
- All data: Open Government Licence v3 (OGL v3). Reconciled to primary files on 29 June 2026.

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British Resilience Index, a non-partisan UK civic data project. Every figure is
reconciled to its primary official publisher before it is shown. Free to cite with
attribution: https://britishresilienceindex.com