# Does prison work? Reoffending in England and Wales

Almost 30 per cent of offenders given any disposal in England and Wales go on to commit a further offence within a year. Those released from a short custodial sentence reoffend at more than twice the rate of those given a community order, but the Ministry of Justice's own guidance says these raw rates should not be used to compare the effectiveness of sentences, because they do not control for who receives which sentence.

Source page: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/reoffending
Machine readable data: https://britishresilienceindex.com/data/deep-dive/reoffending.json

## How to read this

'Proven' reoffending counts only a further caution or conviction recorded within twelve months of the original disposal, plus a further six month waiting period to allow the courts to process cases, so it undercounts actual reoffending, which includes offences that are never detected or proven. The headline cohort here is offenders given a disposal in April to June 2024, the most recent published by the Ministry of Justice; because of the follow up and waiting periods, published cohorts lag roughly two years behind the date of publication. The national trend and regional breakdown use the rolling year to June 2024 from the same release, which smooths quarter to quarter noise.

## The reoffending rate has drifted up since 2020

In the rolling year to June 2024, 28.7 per cent of all offenders given a disposal in England and Wales went on to commit a further proven offence within twelve months, up from a low of 23.9 per cent during the pandemic years when court backlogs delayed proceedings and fewer reoffences had time to be proven within the follow up window. Children reoffend at a consistently higher rate than adults across the whole period.

**Points**

| label | allPct | adultPct | childPct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 30.8 | 29.7 | 42.9 |
| 2014-15 | 29.8 | 28.7 | 42.6 |
| 2015-16 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 41.9 |
| 2016-17 | 29.5 | 28.7 | 40.1 |
| 2017-18 | 28.9 | 28.3 | 38.3 |
| 2018-19 | 27.4 | 26.8 | 37.2 |
| 2019-20 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 33.6 |
| 2020-21 | 23.9 | 23.5 | 31.1 |
| 2021-22 | 25.5 | 25.1 | 32.6 |
| 2022-23 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 32 |
| 2023-24 | 28.7 | 28.6 | 32.1 |

- **Note**: Rolling twelve month cohorts, July to June each year, from the MoJ geographic data tool. The dip around 2019-21 reflects Covid era court delays affecting how many reoffences could be proven within the follow up period, not necessarily a fall in actual reoffending.

## Short custodial sentences show the highest reoffending rate

Adults released from a custodial sentence reoffended at 44.0 per cent in the April to June 2024 cohort, against 39.0 per cent for a community order and 14.4 per cent for a caution. Suspended sentences without requirements attached show the highest rate of any non-custodial disposal, at 44.7 per cent, above even the custody average.

- **Confound heading**: Why this comparison cannot show cause and effect
- **Confound quote**: Proven reoffending rates by disposal (sentence type) should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given.
- **Confound source**: MoJ, Guide to proven reoffending statistics, published April 2026
**Bars**

| label | pct | color |
|---|---|---|
| Suspended sentence, without requirements | 44.7 | worsening |
| Custody, all lengths | 44 | worsening |
| Community order | 39 | accent |
| Absolute or conditional discharge | 29.7 | improving |
| Suspended sentence, with requirements | 25.8 | accent |
| Fine | 25 | improving |
| Caution | 14.4 | improving |

- **Length heading**: By custodial sentence length
- **Length intro**: Among adults released from custody, reoffending falls sharply as sentence length rises. This is the same confounding population effect described above: offenders given the shortest sentences also tend to have the longest and most prolific offending histories.
**Length bars**

| label | pct | color |
|---|---|---|
| 6 months or under | 69.5 | worsening |
| Under 12 months (combined) | 67.1 | worsening |
| More than 6 to under 12 months | 58.5 | worsening |
| 12 months to under 2 years | 35.7 | accent |
| 2 years to under 4 years | 21 | improving |
| 4 years to 10 years | 14.8 | improving |
| More than 10 years | 5.5 | improving |

- **Note**: Adult proven reoffending by disposal (Table C1a) and by custodial sentence length (Table C2a), April to June 2024 cohort. 'Custody, all lengths' combines determinate and indeterminate sentences.

## Children reoffend at a higher rate than adults, on every disposal

In the same cohort, 32.8 per cent of child offenders (aged 10 to 17) proved to reoffend within a year, against 29.5 per cent of adults. The gap holds within disposal type: children given a caution or a community sentence reoffend at a higher rate than adults given the same disposal.

| label | adult | child |
|---|---|---|
| Overall proven reoffending rate | 29.5 | 32.8 |
| Custody | 44 | 66 |
| Caution | 14.4 | 22.7 |
| Community order / youth rehabilitation order | 39 | 58.1 |

- **Note**: Adult figures: Table C1a. Child figures: Table C1b. 'Community order' for children is the youth rehabilitation order or other youth community penalty, the closest equivalent disposal.

## Where reoffending is highest and lowest

Adult proven reoffending rates vary by more than eight percentage points across the nine English regions and Wales, rolling year July 2023 to June 2024.

**Regions**

| name | pct | offenders | reoffenders |
|---|---|---|---|
| North East | 35 | 19,431 | 6,801 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 33.2 | 37,100 | 12,299 |
| East Midlands | 30.3 | 29,055 | 8,803 |
| Wales | 30.1 | 19,696 | 5,935 |
| North West | 29.6 | 54,240 | 16,035 |
| South West | 27.1 | 26,030 | 7,057 |
| East of England | 26.7 | 31,966 | 8,536 |
| South East | 26 | 39,067 | 10,152 |
| West Midlands | 25.8 | 27,523 | 7,093 |
| London | 24.8 | 37,348 | 9,273 |

- **Note**: Adult offenders, 'Region total' category, MoJ geographic data tool. Region is drawn from the offender's home address, not the location of the offence. See the prisons deep dive for the equivalent local authority league table.

## Assaults on staff have risen faster than assaults between prisoners

In the twelve months to March 2026, there were 9,833 assaults on staff and 21,245 prisoner on prisoner assaults, out of 30,820 assault incidents overall. Assaults on staff are up 82 per cent over the decade, from 5,409 in the twelve months to March 2016, against 27 per cent for prisoner on prisoner assaults. They fell in the latest year, from 10,568 in the twelve months to March 2025, while prisoner on prisoner assaults rose.

**Assault trend**

| year | prisoners | staff | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,016 | 16,731 | 5,409 | 22,182 |
| 2,017 | 19,360 | 7,159 | 26,642 |
| 2,018 | 22,377 | 9,003 | 31,028 |
| 2,019 | 22,821 | 9,630 | 32,074 |
| 2,020 | 20,632 | 9,020 | 29,315 |
| 2,021 | 10,977 | 7,011 | 17,764 |
| 2,022 | 12,773 | 7,598 | 20,076 |
| 2,023 | 15,099 | 7,461 | 22,318 |
| 2,024 | 18,786 | 9,847 | 28,290 |
| 2,025 | 20,574 | 10,568 | 30,849 |
| 2,026 | 21,245 | 9,833 | 30,820 |

- **Selfharm mar26**: 70,632
**Stats**

| value | label |
|---|---|
| 30,820 | assault incidents, 12 months to Mar 2026 |
| 9,833 | assaults on staff, 12 months to Mar 2026 |
| 70,632 | self harm incidents, 12 months to Mar 2026 |

## A quarter of prisoners are held in crowded accommodation

In the twelve months to March 2025, 24.7 per cent of prisoners in England and Wales were held in crowded accommodation, defined as two people sharing a cell designed for one, or three sharing a cell designed for two. As at 31 March 2025, 40,399 staff were in post across public sector prisons and the Youth Custody Service.

**Crowding trend**

| year | pct |
|---|---|
| 2,015 | 25.7 |
| 2,016 | 24.6 |
| 2,017 | 24.6 |
| 2,018 | 24.4 |
| 2,019 | 22.5 |
| 2,020 | 22.5 |
| 2,021 | 20.2 |
| 2,022 | 20.6 |
| 2,023 | 22.9 |
| 2,024 | 23.6 |
| 2,025 | 24.7 |

**Stats**

| value | label |
|---|---|
| 24.7% | prisoners in crowded accommodation, 12mo to Mar 2025 |
| 40,399 | staff in post, public sector prisons and YCS, 31 Mar 2025 |

- **Note**: HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025, Chapter 2 (crowding, all prisons) and Chapter 10 (staff in post). The staff figure covers public sector prisons and the Youth Custody Service only; it excludes privately managed prisons and probation staff, for whom this digest does not publish a comparable combined headcount.

## What should we be asking?

- Short custodial sentences show the highest reoffending rate of any disposal, but the Ministry of Justice says this cannot be read as proof that short sentences cause more reoffending. What would a like for like comparison, matching offenders on their criminal history and risk, show instead?
- Suspended sentences without requirements reoffend at a higher rate than suspended sentences with requirements attached, and higher than the custody average. What explains the gap, and is it being used to inform sentencing guidance?
- Children reoffend at a higher rate than adults on every disposal type. What is different about the intervention children receive, and what would closing part of that gap require?
- Assaults on staff are up more than 80 per cent over the decade while a quarter of prisoners are held in crowded accommodation. Is there a link between crowding, staffing levels and the safety of people who work in prisons?
- Reoffending in the highest region is over eight percentage points above the lowest. How much of that gap reflects the mix of offences and sentences given locally, rather than the area itself?

## Sources

- MoJ -- Proven reoffending statistics: April to June 2024 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024) · OGL v3
- MoJ -- Guide to proven reoffending statistics, published April 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics) · OGL v3
- MoJ -- Proven reoffending: geographic data tool (July 2013 to June 2024) (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-to-june-2024) · OGL v3
- MoJ / HMPPS -- Safety in Custody Statistics, England and Wales, to March 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2026) · OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 (Chapter 2, prison crowding; Chapter 10, staff in post) (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmpps-annual-digest-april-2024-to-march-2025) · OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Offender Management Statistics Quarterly: Prison Population 31 March 2026 (used for reconciliation) (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026) · OGL v3

## Caveats and data notes

- 'Proven' reoffending is a further caution or conviction recorded within twelve months of the original disposal, followed by a further six month waiting period for cases to go through the courts. It does not capture offences that are never detected or never proven, so it understates actual reoffending. Published cohorts lag roughly two years behind the date of publication.
- MoJ's own guidance states: "Proven reoffending rates by disposal (sentence type) should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given." (Guide to proven reoffending statistics, published April 2026, section 2.2). The figures on this page by disposal type and sentence length should be read as a description of who reoffends, not as evidence that any sentence type causes more or less reoffending.
- The national trend and regional breakdown use rolling year cohorts (July to June) from the geographic data tool, which differ from the single quarter cohort (April to June 2024) used for the headline and disposal breakdowns. The two sets of figures are not directly comparable to one another, though both come from the same underlying data.
- Regional reoffending rates are assigned by the offender's home address, not where the offence took place, and combine all disposal types and offence types for that region.
- Prisoner on prisoner and on staff assault counts (Table 7) do not sum exactly to the total assault incident count (Table 4) because a single incident can involve more than one assault, recorded against more than one category.
- Crowding is measured as the twelve months ending March 2025, the latest period published in the HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 at time of writing; it is not the same reference date as the population and occupancy figures on the prisons deep dive, which use later 2026 snapshots.
- The staff in post figure (40,399) covers public sector prisons and the Youth Custody Service only. It excludes privately managed prisons, for which HMPPS does not publish a directly comparable combined workforce headcount in this release.
- Prison population, reconciled against the live prisons deep dive on this site: 87,342 people in custody at 31 March 2026, 96.2 per cent occupancy.
- All data: Open Government Licence v3 (OGL v3). Reconciled to primary files on 25 July 2026.

---

British Resilience Index, a non-partisan UK civic data project. Every figure is
reconciled to its primary official publisher before it is shown. Free to cite with
attribution: https://britishresilienceindex.com