economy and public finances · the national record
The welfare bill: what benefits actually cost
What the UK spends on benefits, benefit by benefit, and how DWP's own forecast expects that bill to change by the end of the decade. UK welfare spending is forecast at about 333.8 billion pounds in the 2025 to 2026 financial year, and DWP's Spring Forecast 2026 projects it reaching about 408.6 billion pounds by 2030 to 2031. This page sets out where that money goes now, which lines are growing fastest, and how it splits between pensioners and people of working age.
How to read this
Figures below mix three different scopes and it matters which one a number belongs to. Most individual benefit lines, including State Pension, Universal Credit, disability benefits, Housing Benefit and Pension Credit, are Great Britain figures on DWP's own Annually Managed Expenditure basis. Child Benefit is UK wide and HMRC administered, not part of that DWP total. The 333.8 billion and 408.6 billion pound headline totals are the workbook's own UK wide welfare figure, which also includes Northern Ireland social security and other HMRC run support not broken out benefit by benefit here. All forecasts are DWP and Office for Budget Responsibility consistent projections from the Spring Forecast 2026, not certainties.
Computed from DWP Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026 (Open Government Licence v3.0).
The national picture
A 333.8 billion pound welfare bill, heading to about 408.6 billion by 2030 to 2031
DWP's Spring Forecast 2026 puts UK welfare spending, its own headline figure covering DWP benefits in Great Britain, Northern Ireland social security and HMRC administered support such as Child Benefit together, at about 333.8 billion pounds in the 2025 to 2026 financial year. On the same forecast, that rises to about 408.6 billion pounds by 2030 to 2031, up 22.4 per cent in cash terms over five years. State Pension is the single biggest line by a wide margin at about 146.1 billion pounds, more than the next two biggest lines, Universal Credit and disability benefits, combined.
Benefit by benefit
Where the money goes
State Pension dwarfs every other individual benefit. Universal Credit and disability benefits are the next two biggest lines, and disability benefits are growing fastest of any of them. These seven lines do not sum to the UK wide headline total above: Northern Ireland social security and some smaller HMRC run support are part of that total but are not broken out benefit by benefit in DWP's own tables.
13.2m to 13.7m recipients, 2025-26 to 2030-31. GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure (contributory and non-contributory combined)
6.4m to 6.9m cases (benefit units), not people, 2025-26 to 2030-31. GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure
Caseload: component caseloads not summed (people can receive more than one). GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure: Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Payment, Armed Forces Independence Payment, Attendance Allowance, Access to Work Grants and Mobility Allowance combined (the workbook's own definition)
1.6m to 1.4m claims, 2025-26 to 2030-31. GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure (excludes the Universal Credit housing element, counted inside Universal Credit above)
1.4m to 1.1m claims, 2025-26 to 2030-31. GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure
Caseload: not published in this workbook. UK wide, HMRC administered (not DWP Annually Managed Expenditure, so not part of the Total benefit expenditure figure the other rows sum into)
Caseload: not a single benefit, so no single caseload. GB, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure. Residual: the workbook's own Total benefit expenditure minus the five DWP AME lines above (State Pension, Universal Credit, disability benefits, Housing Benefit, Pension Credit). Includes Jobseeker's Allowance, Employment and Support Allowance, Carer's Allowance, Winter Fuel Payments, bereavement benefits, industrial injuries benefits, incapacity and severe disablement benefits, and other smaller lines.
Expenditure in nominal (cash) terms, not adjusted for inflation. Caseloads are DWP's own forecast year average figures in thousands; different benefits count caseloads differently (cases, claims or recipients), so caseloads are not comparable across rows. Source: DWP Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026, 2025/26 and 2030/31.
The growth story
Which lines are growing fastest
Disability benefits are forecast to grow fastest of the named lines, up 44.5 per cent between 2025 to 2026 and 2030 to 2031, against 23.7 per cent for State Pension, the next fastest of the big lines. Pension Credit is the one line forecast to shrink in cash terms, as DWP's caseload forecast for it falls. This is a description of DWP's own forecast, not a judgement on why any line moves the way it does.
Growth 2025-26 to 2030-31, cash terms, DWP AME (GB) or, for Child Benefit, HMRC UK wide expenditure. 'All other benefits' is excluded here as a residual bucket rather than a single benefit; it grows more slowly than any named line, about 2.4 per cent, over the same period.
Who it goes to
Pensioners against people of working age
On DWP's own age group split for this GB Annually Managed Expenditure total, pensioners account for the largest share, about 57.5 per cent of the 309.1 billion pound total in 2025 to 2026, against about 40.8 per cent for people of working age and about 1.7 per cent for children. By 2030 to 2031 the working age share edges up slightly as pensioner spending grows a little more slowly than the total.
Great Britain, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure basis; the same scope and total as the 'Total benefit expenditure' figure the league table's DWP AME lines sum into, so it excludes Child Benefit, Northern Ireland and other HMRC run support that sit inside the UK wide headline total. Source: DWP Benefit summary table, Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026.
In context
Welfare against the rest of public spending
On the workbook's own calculation, UK welfare spending was equivalent to about 24 per cent of Total Managed Expenditure, all UK government spending, in 2025 to 2026, and is forecast to reach about 25 per cent by 2030 to 2031. A separate, broader HM Treasury accounting category, Social protection under the international COFOG classification, which also covers local authority services and public sector pensions administration and is not the same scope as DWP's welfare figure, ran at about 30 per cent of Total Managed Expenditure in 2025 to 2026 (PESA 2026). The two figures should not be read as the same measure.
Social protection, COFOG function 10, PESA 2026 Chapter 5, Table 5.4, 2025-26 outturn (current + capital expenditure). A different, wider HM Treasury/ONS accounting category from DWP's UK welfare figure above; the two are not directly comparable. See the public spending deep-dive on this site for the full function by function breakdown.
Questions this raises
For the welfare bill
- 1.
State Pension is the single biggest benefit by a wide margin and keeps growing broadly in line with the state pension age population and the triple lock. How much of the five year rise in the total bill is State Pension alone against everything else combined?
- 2.
Disability benefits are the fastest growing line in this forecast. Is that being driven mainly by more people qualifying, or by the value of individual awards rising?
- 3.
Pension Credit is the one line forecast to fall in cash terms, on a shrinking caseload forecast, even as State Pension keeps growing. What does that combination imply about who claims each benefit and why?
- 4.
Universal Credit caseloads are published as cases, not people, while DWP separately reports about 8.3 million people on the benefit. How much does that gap between cases and people matter for reading any single caseload figure in isolation?
Sources & method
Data provenance
- DWP Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026 ↗· Open Government Licence v3.0
- Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) 2026, Chapter 5 (COFOG cross-check) ↗· Open Government Licence v3.0
Caveats & data notes
- Three different scopes appear on this page and they are not interchangeable. Individual benefit lines (State Pension, Universal Credit, disability benefits, Housing Benefit, Pension Credit) are Great Britain, DWP Annually Managed Expenditure figures. Child Benefit is UK wide and HMRC administered. The 333.8 and 408.6 billion pound headline totals are the workbook's own UK wide welfare figure, which also includes Northern Ireland social security and other HMRC administered support not broken out benefit by benefit here. The seven league rows do not sum to the UK wide headline for this reason.
- Universal Credit caseloads in the league table are DWP's forecast year average number of cases (broadly, benefit units, so a couple claiming jointly counts once), not people. DWP separately publishes a headline of about 8.3 million people on Universal Credit at December 2025, roughly 1.3 people per case; the two figures use different units and are not directly comparable.
- All figures for 2030 to 2031 are DWP and Office for Budget Responsibility consistent forecasts from the Spring Forecast 2026, not outturn, and not a certainty: policy, the economy and caseloads can all move differently from forecast between now and then.
- Expenditure figures are in nominal (cash) terms, not adjusted for inflation, so part of the rise to 2030-31 reflects general price and earnings growth rather than a bigger real terms bill.
- The pensioners against working age split uses DWP's own Great Britain, Annually Managed Expenditure age grouping, the same scope as the league table's DWP AME lines. It does not include Child Benefit, Northern Ireland or the other HMRC administered support inside the UK wide headline total.
- The 'about 30 per cent of Total Managed Expenditure' Social protection figure in the context section is a separate HM Treasury/ONS COFOG accounting category (PESA 2026), not DWP's welfare figure. It covers a wider range of spending, including some local authority services and public sector pensions administration, and should not be read as the same measure as the UK welfare share of Total Managed Expenditure figure above it.
- Disability benefits component caseloads (Personal Independence Payment, Disability Living Allowance, Attendance Allowance) are not summed into one total: the workbook itself notes individuals can receive more than one of these benefits, so a naive sum would double count.
- Source: DWP Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026, 2025/26 outturn/forecast year and 2030/31 forecast year.
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