Monthly Review
British Society Stress Index
Monthly Operating Review — June 2026
National position
Executive Summary
As of the June 2026 release, the British Society Stress Index stands at 52 out of 100 — a Fragile reading, 28.8 minutes to midnight. The national score has held steady since the previous release.
Population Health remains the largest single contributor to national stress, with a domain score of 82. Public Service Capacity and Housing and Household Formation also sit in the Fragile range. The single highest-stress indicator is Drug-poisoning deaths (93).
The most material movement this release was Fraud incidents (CSEW), which deteriorated by 67 points. 19 indicators deteriorated and 25 improved by a material margin (≥5 points).
Data confidence is highest in official statistics series and lowest in official statistics in development measures; the overall confidence score is 0.82.
Indicator changes
Material Movements
| Metric | Domain | From | To | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 16 | 83 | +67 pts |
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | 51 | 93 | +42 pts |
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 72 | 31 | −41 pts |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 16 | 52 | +36 pts |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 64 | 30 | −34 pts |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 65 | 32 | −33 pts |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 62 | 91 | +29 pts |
| Business births minus closures | Work and Productivity | 48 | 22 | −26 pts |
| Economic inactivity rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 39 | 15 | −24 pts |
| Adult social care vacancies | Public Service Capacity | 57 | 33 | −24 pts |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | 76 | 52 | −24 pts |
| Household food insecurity | Living Standards | 48 | 25 | −23 pts |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | 68 | 90 | +22 pts |
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Environment and Climate | 11 | 33 | +22 pts |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | 41 | 62 | +21 pts |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | 60 | 80 | +20 pts |
| Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24) | Childhood and Social Floor | 73 | 53 | −20 pts |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | 47 | 66 | +19 pts |
| Offences resulting in charge or summons (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 53 | 72 | +19 pts |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | 54 | 73 | +19 pts |
| Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England) | Public Service Capacity | 53 | 35 | −18 pts |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | 80 | 63 | −17 pts |
| Persistent school absence (England) | Childhood and Social Floor | 67 | 50 | −17 pts |
| Avoidable mortality | Population Health | 50 | 33 | −17 pts |
| A&E four-hour performance (England) | Public Service Capacity | 46 | 62 | +16 pts |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | 47 | 63 | +16 pts |
| Fuel poverty | Living Standards | 24 | 9 | −15 pts |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | 100 | 85 | −15 pts |
| Poverty after housing costs | Living Standards | 30 | 44 | +14 pts |
| Children looked after | Childhood and Social Floor | 66 | 52 | −14 pts |
| Employment rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 39 | 27 | −12 pts |
| Regular formal volunteering | Trust and Wellbeing | 56 | 44 | −12 pts |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | 70 | 82 | +12 pts |
| Feeling safe after dark | Trust and Wellbeing | 29 | 18 | −11 pts |
| Neighbourhood belonging | Trust and Wellbeing | 52 | 42 | −10 pts |
| Household arrears and insolvency pressure | Living Standards | 41 | 50 | +9 pts |
| Infant mortality | Childhood and Social Floor | 68 | 59 | −9 pts |
| Theft, robbery and burglary (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 50 | 41 | −9 pts |
| Grid connection queue delay | Infrastructure | 45 | 36 | −9 pts |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | 70 | 78 | +8 pts |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | 91 | 83 | −8 pts |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | 80 | 73 | −7 pts |
| Public sector net investment | Fiscal Resilience | 24 | 30 | +6 pts |
| Crown Court timeliness (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 40 | 45 | +5 pts |
System overview
Domain-Level Position
| Domain | Score | Band | Movement | Weight | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population Health | 82 | Critical | +30 pts | 12% | Drug-poisoning deaths |
| Housing and Household Formation | 61 | Fragile | +14 pts | 11% | Households in temporary accommodation (England) |
| Public Service Capacity | 60 | Fragile | +2 pts | 12% | Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) |
| Rule of Law and Safety | 57 | Fragile | +6 pts | 9% | Fraud incidents (CSEW) |
| Childhood and Social Floor | 56 | Fragile | −10 pts | 11% | EHC plan timeliness |
| Environment and Climate | 47 | Strained | −1 pts | 5% | Bathing water quality |
| Living Standards | 44 | Strained | +3 pts | 13% | Real average weekly earnings growth |
| Trust and Wellbeing | 44 | Strained | −12 pts | 6% | Life satisfaction |
| Infrastructure | 37 | Strained | −4 pts | 3% | Rail cancellations (GB) |
| Fiscal Resilience | 32 | Strained | −33 pts | 7% | Public sector net debt |
| Work and Productivity | 27 | Strained | −20 pts | 11% | Zero-hours contracts |
Stress attribution
Primary Stress Contributors
Key deteriorations this release
Key deteriorations
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 83 | +67 pts | 0.75 |
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | 93 | +42 pts | 0.90 |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 52 | +36 pts | 0.80 |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 91 | +29 pts | 0.85 |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | 90 | +22 pts | 0.85 |
Weighted contribution to national score
Positive movements
Improving Indicators
Key improvements
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 31 | −41 pts | 0.90 |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 30 | −34 pts | 0.85 |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 32 | −33 pts | 0.70 |
| Business births minus closures | Work and Productivity | 22 | −26 pts | 0.80 |
| Economic inactivity rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 15 | −24 pts | 0.80 |
Risk register
Critical Risks
Population Health is rated Critical (score 82). The primary contributor is Drug-poisoning deaths (stress score 93).
| Risk | Domain | Severity | Trend | Confidence | Evidence | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | Near Midnight | deteriorating | High0.90 | 93.90 deaths per million population (age-standardised), 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | Near Midnight | deteriorating | High0.85 | 11.40 age-standardised deaths per 100,000, 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | Near Midnight | deteriorating | High0.85 | 46.40 % of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks, 2024 (Department for Education). | escalate |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | Critical | deteriorating | High0.90 | 78.30 thousand open cases, End Jun 2025 (Ministry of Justice). | stable |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | Critical | deteriorating | High0.90 | 134.21 thousand households, Q4 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable |
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | Critical | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 4.20 million incidents per year, YE Mar 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | Critical | deteriorating | High0.85 | 85 % of bathing waters rated Excellent or Good, 2024 (Environment Agency). | escalate |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | Critical | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 3.50 % of people in employment on a zero-hours contract, Apr-Jun 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | Critical | deteriorating | High0.85 | -0.20 % year-on-year (real terms), 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | Fragile | stable | Medium0.80 | 2.79 million people, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | Fragile | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 20.40 % of adults aged 16-64, 2023/24 (NHS England / NatCen). | monitor |
| Offences resulting in charge or summons (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | Fragile | deteriorating | High0.85 | 6.30 % of recorded offences, YE Mar 2025 (Home Office). | monitor |
| Public sector net debt | Fiscal Resilience | Fragile | stable | High0.90 | 94.70 % of GDP, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | Fragile | deteriorating | High0.90 | 4.80 %, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | monitor |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | Fragile | improving | Medium0.80 | 2.02 million new requests for adult social care support, 2024-25 (NHS England Digital). | stable |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | Fragile | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 208.60 thousand net additional dwellings (England), 2024–25 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | monitor |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | Fragile | stable | High0.95 | 97.80 % of usable operational capacity, 24 Nov 2025 (Ministry of Justice). | stable |
| A&E four-hour performance (England) | Public Service Capacity | Fragile | deteriorating | High0.95 | 75.70 % attendances within 4 hours (target 95), May 2026 (NHS England). | monitor |
| Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) | Childhood and Social Floor | Fragile | stable | High0.85 | 3.92 gap index, 2024 (Department for Education). | stable |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | Fragile | deteriorating | High0.85 | 4.10 % trains cancelled or part-cancelled, 2024–25 (Office of Rail and Road). | monitor |
| Storm overflow spill duration (England) | Environment and Climate | Fragile | stable | Medium0.80 | 3.61 million hours of monitored spills per year, 2024 (Environment Agency). | monitor |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | Fragile | improving | High0.95 | 7.11 million incomplete pathways, March 2026 (NHS England). | monitor |
| Social housing waiting lists (England) | Housing and Household Formation | Fragile | stable | Medium0.75 | 1.34 million households, 31 Mar 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable |
Data provenance
Data Quality Notes
The strongest tier by mean confidence is official statistics (mean 0.85, 49 indicators).
The weakest tier is official statistics in development (mean 0.7, 2 indicators).
3 indicators carry low data confidence (below 0.70) and require additional scrutiny.
49 of 68 indicators are sourced from official statistics, providing a robust data foundation.
Analytical queries
Open Questions
No indicator this release combines elevated stress with low data confidence, so no data-quality questions are flagged. Open questions are raised where a high-stress reading rests on a series whose confidence score falls below 0.70 — none currently meet that test.
Forward look
Next Review Focus
Indicators requiring close monitoring before the next release.
Drug-poisoning deaths
Deteriorating; stress score 93 and rising — requires monitoring.
Suicide rate
Deteriorating; stress score 91 and rising — requires monitoring.
EHC plan timeliness
Deteriorating; stress score 90 and rising — requires monitoring.
Fraud incidents (CSEW)
Deteriorating; stress score 83 and rising — requires monitoring.
Bathing water quality
Deteriorating; stress score 82 and rising — requires monitoring.
Zero-hours contracts
Deteriorating; stress score 80 and rising — requires monitoring.
Process notes
Methodology & Source Updates
Methodology changes
- No methodology changes in this release.
Source updates
- Seed data release. Live source ingestion not yet enabled — see roadmap.
Full methodology: /methodology · Data sources: /data-sources