Domain review
Childhood and Social Floor
Measures damage to the next generation and the basic social floor.
Childhood and Social Floor is currently rated Fragile. The domain score is driven primarily by EHC plan timeliness, Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) and Infant mortality. Data confidence is medium across its component metrics.
Component indicators
Childhood and Social Floor · Metrics
FYE 2025
Verified official value from Department for Work and Pensions (dwp_cilif), accessed 2026-06-16.
Evidence file
Child poverty after housing costs
Latest reading
FYE 2025
Scoring breakdown
Neutral: the latest reading matches the one before it
Source
Children in Low Income Families
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- Department for Work and Pensions
- Series ID
- dwp_cilif
- Frequency
- Annual
- Accessed
- 16 June 2026
Known weakness
Annual publication carries a 12-month lag; the relative measure can show falling child poverty during recessions when median income also falls. A FYE2022 admin-data switch is a structural break, so year-on-year deltas across that boundary are misleading.
Notes
Verified official value from Department for Work and Pensions (dwp_cilif), accessed 2026-06-16.
2024
Verified official value from DfE (019d209c/TuAuP), accessed 2026-10-01.
Evidence file
Persistent school absence (England)
Latest reading
2024
Scoring breakdown
Source
Pupil absence in schools in England
- Update frequency
- Termly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- DfE
- Series ID
- 019d209c/TuAuP
- Frequency
- AY (DfE EES API)
- Accessed
- 1 October 2026
Known weakness
England-only; the 10% threshold is a policy definition rather than an evidence-based harm threshold, and the metric cannot distinguish school-refusing from poverty-related absence.
Notes
Verified official value from DfE (019d209c/TuAuP), accessed 2026-10-01.
2024
Verified official value from DfE (18e39901/CdRId), accessed 2026-10-01.
Evidence file
Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England)
Latest reading
2024
Scoring breakdown
Source
Key Stage 4 performance
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- DfE
- Series ID
- 18e39901/CdRId
- Frequency
- AY (DfE EES API)
- Accessed
- 1 October 2026
Known weakness
Annual frequency and definitional changes to the gap index methodology in 2019 limit long-run comparability before and after the reform.
Notes
Verified official value from DfE (18e39901/CdRId), accessed 2026-10-01.
2025
Verified official value from DfE (019cc380/6DPUr), accessed 2026-10-01.
Evidence file
Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24)
Latest reading
2025
Scoring breakdown
Source
NEET age 16–24
- Update frequency
- Quarterly
- Reliability
- medium
Provenance
- Provider
- DfE
- Series ID
- 019cc380/6DPUr
- Frequency
- CY (DfE EES API)
- Accessed
- 1 October 2026
Known weakness
Derived from LFS so inherits the declining-response-rate uncertainty; NEET status is a snapshot measure that does not capture duration or severity of disengagement.
Notes
Verified official value from DfE (019cc380/6DPUr), accessed 2026-10-01.
July 2026
Verified official value from NHS England (Mental Health Services Monthly Statistics) (CYP in contact with mental health services), accessed 2026-10-01.
Evidence file
Children's mental-health caseload
Latest reading
July 2026
Scoring breakdown
Source
Children and young people's mental health statistics
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- medium
Provenance
- Provider
- NHS England (Mental Health Services Monthly Statistics)
- Series ID
- CYP in contact with mental health services
- Frequency
- monthly
- Accessed
- 1 October 2026
Known weakness
Published as 'in contact with services' (open referrals), which includes those receiving care as well as those waiting: not a pure waiting list; counting methodologies vary across NHS trusts.
Notes
Verified official value from NHS England (Mental Health Services Monthly Statistics) (CYP in contact with mental health services), accessed 2026-10-01.
2024
Verified official value from Office for National Statistics (ons_infant_mortality), accessed 2026-06-16.
Evidence file
Infant mortality
Latest reading
2024
Scoring breakdown
Neutral: the latest reading matches the one before it
Source
Child and infant mortality in England and Wales
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- Office for National Statistics
- Series ID
- ons_infant_mortality
- Frequency
- Annual
- Accessed
- 16 June 2026
Known weakness
England & Wales; small annual death counts make single-year moves noisy, so read the multi-year trend (flat-to-rising since the 2014 low).
Notes
Verified official value from Office for National Statistics (ons_infant_mortality), accessed 2026-06-16.
Year ending 31 Mar 2025
Verified official value from Department for Education (dfe_looked_after), accessed 2026-08-25.
Evidence file
Children looked after
Latest reading
Year ending 31 Mar 2025
Scoring breakdown
Source
Children looked after in England including adoptions
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- Department for Education
- Series ID
- dfe_looked_after
- Frequency
- Annual
- Accessed
- 25 August 2026
Known weakness
England; the rate reflects both underlying need and local-authority thresholds and policy, which vary.
Notes
Verified official value from Department for Education (dfe_looked_after), accessed 2026-08-25.
2025
Verified official value from Department for Education (dfe_ehcp), accessed 2026-07-07.
Evidence file
EHC plan timeliness
Latest reading
2025
Scoring breakdown
Source
Education, health and care plans
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- Department for Education
- Series ID
- dfe_ehcp
- Frequency
- Annual
- Accessed
- 7 July 2026
Known weakness
England; excludes statutory exception cases, and a 2022 reporting-scope change coincides with the sharp fall in performance.
Notes
Verified official value from Department for Education (dfe_ehcp), accessed 2026-07-07.
2024/25
Verified official value from NHS England / OHID (nhs_ncmp), accessed 2026-07-07.
Evidence file
Child obesity, Year 6 (England)
Latest reading
2024/25
Scoring breakdown
Source
NHS England / OHID: National Child Measurement Programme
- Update frequency
- Annual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- NHS England / OHID
- Series ID
- nhs_ncmp
- Frequency
- Annual
- Accessed
- 7 July 2026
Known weakness
England only; only recent in-text points transcribed (full NCMP series from 2006/07 is in the dataset); above pre-pandemic levels.
Notes
Verified official value from NHS England / OHID (nhs_ncmp), accessed 2026-07-07.
Historical values
Metric trends
Historical values
Child poverty after housing costs
Latest
27% of childrenChild poverty after housing costs · % of children · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Persistent school absence (England)
Latest
18.1% pupils missing ≥10% of sessionsPersistent school absence (England) · % pupils missing ≥10% of sessions · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England)
Latest
3.92gap indexDisadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) · gap index · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24)
Latest
13.3%Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24) · % · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Children's mental-health caseload
Latest
524thousand children with an open referral to CYP mental-health servicesChildren's mental-health caseload · thousand children with an open referral to CYP mental-health services · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Infant mortality
Latest
3.9infant deaths per 1,000 live birthsInfant mortality · infant deaths per 1,000 live births · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Children looked after
Latest
67children looked after per 10,000Children looked after · children looked after per 10,000 · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
EHC plan timeliness
Latest
46.1% of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeksEHC plan timeliness · % of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Child obesity, Year 6 (England)
Latest
22.2%Child obesity, Year 6 (England) · % · reported values, not stress scores.
Data provenance
Sources for this domain
| Organisation | Dataset | Type | Frequency | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Department for Work and Pensions | Children in Low Income Families | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
| Department for Education | Pupil absence in schools in England | Official | Termly | Source ↗ |
| Department for Education | Key Stage 4 performance | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
| Department for Education | NEET age 16–24 | Official | Quarterly | Source ↗ |
| NHS England | Children and young people's mental health statistics | Official (Development) | Monthly | Source ↗ |
| Office for National Statistics | Child and infant mortality in England and Wales | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
| Department for Education | Children looked after in England including adoptions | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
| Department for Education | Education, health and care plans | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
| NHS England / OHID | NHS England / OHID: National Child Measurement Programme | Official | Annual | Source ↗ |
International context · vs OECD
Child relative income poverty (<50% median)
Slightly worse than the OECD average on the 50%-of-median measure (the UK's domestic headline uses 60%).
OECD Family Database (CO2.2) ↗ · 2021 · context only, not part of the score
Sensitivity analysis
What would move this domain?
The Childhood and Social Floor domain score is most sensitive to its two highest-stress indicators. Meaningful improvement in either of the following metrics would be the most direct path to improving the domain score:
- 81
EHC plan timeliness
Share of new Education, Health and Care plans issued within the statutory 20 weeks (excluding exception cases), England.
- 67
Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England)
Disadvantage gap index at Key Stage 4, measuring the attainment difference between pupils eligible for free school meals and their peers.
Related analysis
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