British Resilience Index: United Kingdom national resilience dashboard

UK Societal Resilience · October 2026

51/100Fragileunchanged since September

A stress reading from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress; 0 is calm, 100 is the most severe reading the scale describes.

robust range 43–52 under alternative methods

A single measured reading across eleven national systems. The United Kingdom is fragile, and has held steady since the previous release.

Medium · 71 of 73 indicators verified

What the index is, one finding this release, and the monthly email

What this is

A non-partisan reading of Britain's core systems

The British Resilience Index is a UK civic data project. It reads eleven national systems, from health and housing to public finances and trust, as one stress score out of 100, and follows single official datasets in 75 sourced deep dives. Every figure traces to an official UK source.

How it is scored →

One finding · October 2026

Energy bill affordability pressure

The stress score for Energy bill affordability pressure (Living Standards) rose 35 points since the September 2026 release, to 66 out of 100, a deterioration. Higher means more stress. What changed: new observation, history restated, source changed.

See the indicator →

The monthly reading

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One email a month when the index updates, plus The Quarterly Record four times a year. No advertising, and your address is never sold or shared. You finish subscribing from a confirmation link in your inbox. Unsubscribe in one click.

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Release movements

What changed this release

Since the September 2026 release

21 of 71 comparable indicators had a real change in their inputs since the September 2026 release.

New observations
15
the publisher released a later period
Revised values
6
the same period, a changed figure
Restated series
9
an earlier point in the history changed
Changed sources
14
a different series, provider or link
Normalisation changes
0
scored against fixed bounds instead of own history, or the reverse

An indicator can appear in more than one category. Counts cover scored indicators present in both releases.

Key deteriorations

MetricDomainScoreMovementConfidence
Energy bill affordability pressurenew observation, history restated, source changedLiving Standards66+35 pts0.70
Trust in national governmentnew observation, source changedTrust and Wellbeing78+31 pts0.70
GP access pressure (England)new observation, source changedPublic Service Capacity56+11 pts0.75
Prison capacity utilisation (E&W)new observationRule of Law and Safety61+11 pts0.95
NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)new observation, source changedPublic Service Capacity76+8 pts0.95

Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.

Key improvements

MetricDomainScoreMovementConfidence
Chronic lonelinessnew observation, source changedTrust and Wellbeing17−44 pts0.75
Rail cancellations (GB)new observation, source changedInfrastructure24−39 pts0.85
Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)new observation, source changedPublic Service Capacity32−22 pts0.90
Public sector net investmentvalue revised, history restatedFiscal Resilience16−14 pts0.85
Delayed hospital discharges (England)new observation, source changedPublic Service Capacity57−13 pts0.80

Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.

Scores are stress readings out of 100; higher means more stress. Most indicators update annually or quarterly, so a large movement usually marks a new official release entering the index, not a change that happened within the month.

11 systems · measured

Each national system, on one scale

Each figure is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress, so the most stressed systems sit at the top.

The tick beside each score is its movement since the September 2026 release.

Weighting

What drives the headline figure

The headline is a weighted reading across all systems. This shows which carry the most weight once their stress score and domain weight are combined.

Population Health10.0 pt
Public Service Capacity7.3 pt
Housing and Household Formation6.8 pt
Childhood and Social Floor6.0 pt
Rule of Law and Safety5.1 pt
Living Standards4.5 pt
Trust and Wellbeing3.4 pt
Work and Productivity3.2 pt
Fiscal Resilience2.0 pt
Environment and Climate1.4 pt
Infrastructure0.9 pt

Historical trajectory

National stress, 2010–present

National trajectory

British Resilience Index · Historical Trend

Current

51

Level-only modelled trajectory from verified official statistics; all 11 domains in this view are covered from 2018 (sparser before 2015). Each year's published values are re-scored on today's scale: it shows where stress sat, not a live historical index, and the current headline additionally reflects short-term trend, so it can differ from the final plotted point. COVID-era stress appears mainly from 2021, as the waiting-list, housing and court pressures it triggered entered the annual statistics with a lag.

Concurrent stress

Domains at extreme stress

1 of 11

One domain is scoring 75 or above in this release. This is reported as a signal and does not change the national score. The index measures each domain separately and holds no model of how a failure in one would propagate to another, so it cannot say what concurrent strain costs; it can only say that it is present.

Domains at or above 75

Population Health83

Go deeper

Deep dives into the data

Beyond the headline score, we take single official datasets and follow one topic all the way down: who, where, how much, and which way it is moving. A few to start with:

£3.6bnpaid in care charges by over 65s
Free personal care: what older people pay for care in England now, and what Scotland showsEngland and Scotland

Councils in England spend £12.0bn a year on long term care for over 65s and those people pay £3.6bn of it back in charges. Scotland has paid for personal care since 2002, now £260.30 a week in a care home. The workforce, the ageing population, and the triple lock record behind the National Care Service announcement.

40%of fostered children placed through agencies
Foster care and profit: who looks after England's foster children, who owns the agencies, and what councils payEngland

About 40 per cent of fostered children in England are placed through independent agencies, up from 27 per cent in 2010. Councils paid private providers £874m in 2024-25, the CMA found profits at the largest agencies materially above a working market, and the ownership chains of the two largest owners lead to Jersey and Luxembourg. A viral claim about the National Fostering Agency, checked against the filings.

75%A&E seen within four hours
A&E waiting times in EnglandEngland

How the four hour standard has slipped to 75 per cent, the rise in 12 hour waits, and the worst trusts.

45%of GP appointments are same day
GP appointments in England: how many, how fast, and by whomEngland

33.9 million appointments in July 2026, 4.3 per cent more than a year earlier, 44.7 per cent seen the same day and 82.0 per cent within two weeks, who delivers them, and the official split between urgent and routine care.

The NHS waiting list: what 7.3 million pathways actually meansEngland

7,278,384 referral to treatment pathways were waiting at the end of May 2026, around 6.2 million individual patients, with 65.6 per cent within 18 weeks against a 92 per cent standard last met in September 2015, and 104,734 waits of more than a year.

£270kprice of an average UK home
House prices across the UKUK

How the price of a home has climbed over thirty years, how far it varies between places, and where West Lothian sits.

3.3mchildren in poverty
Child poverty across the UKUK

What share of children grow up in a low income family, by local authority and nation, how much housing costs add, and where West Lothian sits.

2.5mhouseholds in fuel poverty
Fuel poverty in EnglandEngland

How many households cannot keep warm at a reasonable cost, by region and local authority, and how the measure has changed since 2010.

Gambling: counted to the penny, harmed in the darkUK

Britain publishes the gambling industry quarterly to the penny, and cannot agree how many adults are harmed by it: two sets of official statistics differ sixfold and an independent review says a third of the gap is unexplained. It has counted 21 gambling related suicides ever, none since 2016, records gambling nowhere in its insolvency statistics, and publishes no NHS waiting times or outcomes. When the NHS came to spend the new levy it declined to use the prevalence data at all.

5,565drug related deaths in a year
Where hardship stacks up in EnglandEngland

A British Resilience Index analysis ranking English local authorities on fuel poverty, child low income and drug deaths together, to show where the deepest hardship overlaps.

Housing affordability: house prices against local earningsEngland & Wales

How many years of pay a home costs in every local authority: 7.63 times typical earnings in England, down from the 2021 peak but more than double the 1997 ratio.

Homelessness and temporary accommodation in EnglandEngland

134,210 households, including 176,130 children, were living in temporary accommodation on 31 December 2025, down slightly from the record set the previous quarter, the first quarterly fall since 2022, but still up 5.0 per cent on a year earlier.

0%VAT on electricity to March 2027
What is on your energy bill, and what the VAT cut on electricity is worthGreat Britain

No VAT on household electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, worth around £45 off the yearly cap. The £1,723 October bill taken apart into Ofgem's cost allowances, who gets the VAT cut and who does not, and the £14bn to £18.5bn levy path on OBR figures.

291,492sewage spills in 2025
Sewage spills in EnglandEngland

The storm overflow record: how often each water company spills, into which rivers, and whether it is getting better or worse.

The data centre rushUK

Critical national infrastructure since 2024, five AI Growth Zones, tens of billions announced and a 50 GW connection queue, yet the first official electricity figures arrived only in June 2026 and no official count of the sites exists. In Scotland, where the energy case is strongest, a 7,200 comment planning file, a refused Edinburgh scheme and a ministerial takeback tell the backlash story.

UK air traffic control failures: the record, the cost and what changedUK

The NATS flight data system failed on 8 September 2026, three years after the 2023 failure that hit over 700,000 passengers and cost £75m to £100m. What the official reviews found, how the 34 recommendations were signed off as complete, why NATS beats its delay target on a normal day, how UK airspace compares with Europe, and why Heathrow, 2,130 movements under its cap, cannot absorb a lost afternoon.

£2bus fare cap outside London, 2027
The £2 bus fare cap: what it did last time, and what has happened to busesEngland

Single bus fares in England outside London capped at £2 for all of 2027, backed by £400m. The first £2 cap cut fares 9.1 per cent in a quarter and added about 5 per cent to journeys, while bus miles outside London are down 28 per cent since 2005.

35.1 minwithout power per customer a year
Power cuts in Great Britain: how often the lights go out, and for how longGreat Britain

Ofgem's reliability figures for all 14 electricity licence areas: 35.1 minutes lost per customer a year on average, a 6.6 times gap between London and the north of Scotland, 11 areas missing their targets, £50.9m in penalties, and the winter margin beside the Government's advice to prepare for days without power.

£76.3bnowed by the water companies
Who owns England's water: debt, dividends and bills, and what public ownership would changeEngland and Wales

The Government is lifting the 1989 cap on its shareholdings in England's water companies. Who owns each company now, £76.3bn of net debt, £4.8bn of dividends in five years, Thames Water at 84.5 per cent gearing, a £639 average bill, and how publicly owned Scottish Water and NI Water compare.

Council tax in England: average Band D bill and what your council chargesEngland

The average Band D council tax bill in England is 2,392 pounds in 2026 to 2027, up 4.9 per cent: how it has climbed since 1993, where bills are highest and lowest, and who raised them most this year.

£64.1bnraised by privatisation, 1979 to 1996
Selling the state: what Britain privatised, what it raised, who owns it now, and what came backUK

Everything the state has sold: 177 businesses, stakes and loan books from the 1953 steel sales to Bulb in 2022, 61 council airports and bus companies, 54 returns to public ownership, £64.1bn raised between 1979-80 and 1995-96, about 2.8 million council homes bought by tenants, public land, forests and playing fields. What the National Audit Office found, the dividends paid since, who owns the companies now, the services contracted out, and links to our deep dives on each sector.

111,306UK roles in announced job cuts since 2025
UK job cuts tracker: who is cutting jobs, and how many cuts employers blame on AIUK

Every announced cut of 100 or more UK jobs by a named employer since January 2025, 189 announcements covering 111,306 roles, each graded on a six point scale by what the employer itself said about AI. Employers tied 2,907 of those roles to AI or automation, only 800 of them to AI; a history section goes back to 1950; far more mention AI in passing, have it pinned on them by unions and the press, or deny it.

11% v 60%pay kept when jobless, UK v Germany
AI and the UK tax base: where the money comes from when the jobs go, and what could replace itUK

A personal analysis. Income tax and National Insurance raise more than half of what HMRC collects, and they are levied on wages. This page reads the official exposure estimates, works through what an 85 per cent workforce cut at a bank like Lloyds would mean for the Exchequer and for the people, and weighs three responses: taxing the machine, penalising offshoring and rewarding UK hiring, and a German style earnings related unemployment insurance.

Communications offences: the reports, the charges, and the arrests nobody publishesEngland & Wales

Police recorded 91,987 malicious communications offences in 2025/26, down from 288,939 at the peak, a fall the statisticians attribute to a counting rule change. Three in a hundred closed investigations ended in a charge and the courts convicted 2,487 people under the four offences in 2025. Arrests by offence are published by no department: a campaign group’s 62,199 tally reconciles with the Ministry on convictions and can be checked against nothing on arrests. With sentencing, the official arrests ceiling and Scotland.

17 of 26chronic risks the index does not measure
The UK Chronic Risks Analysis: what the official statistics say about the Government's 26 chronic risksUK

The Cabinet Office published its first Chronic Risks Analysis in July 2025: 26 risks, no scores, no time series. This page maps the 26 against the 71 indicators the index scores, reads 17 of the document's figures again against the latest official release, lists the high stress indicators it never names, and says which of the unmeasured risks already have an official series.

Your area

Find your council

Every English upper tier council has a sourced profile: children's services, temporary accommodation, school absence, deprivation and financial pressure, each figure traced to its official dataset.

The monthly reading

Follow the number over time

A single reading is a snapshot. The value is in the direction of travel. Once a month we send the new national score, what moved, and the sharpest findings from the data, with every figure traceable to its official source.

Data provenance

71 of 73 indicators are drawn from verified official sources, each labelled on its metric card. The remaining 2 are provisional placeholders, marked as seed where they appear, because no clean official figure is published yet; placeholders are shown for transparency and are excluded from all scoring.