British Resilience Index: United Kingdom national resilience dashboard
UK Societal Resilience · October 2026
A stress reading from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress; 0 is calm, 100 is the most severe reading the scale describes.
robust range 43–52 under alternative methods
A single measured reading across eleven national systems. The United Kingdom is fragile, and has held steady since the previous release.
Medium · 71 of 73 indicators verified
What the index is, one finding this release, and the monthly email
What this is
A non-partisan reading of Britain's core systems
The British Resilience Index is a UK civic data project. It reads eleven national systems, from health and housing to public finances and trust, as one stress score out of 100, and follows single official datasets in 75 sourced deep dives. Every figure traces to an official UK source.
One finding · October 2026
Energy bill affordability pressure
The stress score for Energy bill affordability pressure (Living Standards) rose 35 points since the September 2026 release, to 66 out of 100, a deterioration. Higher means more stress. What changed: new observation, history restated, source changed.
The monthly reading
One email a month
One email a month when the index updates, plus The Quarterly Record four times a year. No advertising, and your address is never sold or shared. You finish subscribing from a confirmation link in your inbox. Unsubscribe in one click.
Release movements
What changed this release
Since the September 2026 release
21 of 71 comparable indicators had a real change in their inputs since the September 2026 release.
- New observations
- 15
- the publisher released a later period
- Revised values
- 6
- the same period, a changed figure
- Restated series
- 9
- an earlier point in the history changed
- Changed sources
- 14
- a different series, provider or link
- Normalisation changes
- 0
- scored against fixed bounds instead of own history, or the reverse
An indicator can appear in more than one category. Counts cover scored indicators present in both releases.
Key deteriorations
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy bill affordability pressurenew observation, history restated, source changed | Living Standards | 66 | +35 pts | 0.70 |
| Trust in national governmentnew observation, source changed | Trust and Wellbeing | 78 | +31 pts | 0.70 |
| GP access pressure (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 56 | +11 pts | 0.75 |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W)new observation | Rule of Law and Safety | 61 | +11 pts | 0.95 |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 76 | +8 pts | 0.95 |
Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Key improvements
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic lonelinessnew observation, source changed | Trust and Wellbeing | 17 | −44 pts | 0.75 |
| Rail cancellations (GB)new observation, source changed | Infrastructure | 24 | −39 pts | 0.85 |
| Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 32 | −22 pts | 0.90 |
| Public sector net investmentvalue revised, history restated | Fiscal Resilience | 16 | −14 pts | 0.85 |
| Delayed hospital discharges (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 57 | −13 pts | 0.80 |
Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Scores are stress readings out of 100; higher means more stress. Most indicators update annually or quarterly, so a large movement usually marks a new official release entering the index, not a change that happened within the month.
11 systems · measured
Each national system, on one scale
Each figure is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress, so the most stressed systems sit at the top.
The tick beside each score is its movement since the September 2026 release.
Weighting
What drives the headline figure
The headline is a weighted reading across all systems. This shows which carry the most weight once their stress score and domain weight are combined.
Historical trajectory
National stress, 2010–present
National trajectory
British Resilience Index · Historical Trend
Current
51Level-only modelled trajectory from verified official statistics; all 11 domains in this view are covered from 2018 (sparser before 2015). Each year's published values are re-scored on today's scale: it shows where stress sat, not a live historical index, and the current headline additionally reflects short-term trend, so it can differ from the final plotted point. COVID-era stress appears mainly from 2021, as the waiting-list, housing and court pressures it triggered entered the annual statistics with a lag.
Concurrent stress
Domains at extreme stress
One domain is scoring 75 or above in this release. This is reported as a signal and does not change the national score. The index measures each domain separately and holds no model of how a failure in one would propagate to another, so it cannot say what concurrent strain costs; it can only say that it is present.
Domains at or above 75
Go deeper
Deep dives into the data
Beyond the headline score, we take single official datasets and follow one topic all the way down: who, where, how much, and which way it is moving. A few to start with:
Councils in England spend £12.0bn a year on long term care for over 65s and those people pay £3.6bn of it back in charges. Scotland has paid for personal care since 2002, now £260.30 a week in a care home. The workforce, the ageing population, and the triple lock record behind the National Care Service announcement.
About 40 per cent of fostered children in England are placed through independent agencies, up from 27 per cent in 2010. Councils paid private providers £874m in 2024-25, the CMA found profits at the largest agencies materially above a working market, and the ownership chains of the two largest owners lead to Jersey and Luxembourg. A viral claim about the National Fostering Agency, checked against the filings.
How the four hour standard has slipped to 75 per cent, the rise in 12 hour waits, and the worst trusts.
33.9 million appointments in July 2026, 4.3 per cent more than a year earlier, 44.7 per cent seen the same day and 82.0 per cent within two weeks, who delivers them, and the official split between urgent and routine care.
7,278,384 referral to treatment pathways were waiting at the end of May 2026, around 6.2 million individual patients, with 65.6 per cent within 18 weeks against a 92 per cent standard last met in September 2015, and 104,734 waits of more than a year.
How the price of a home has climbed over thirty years, how far it varies between places, and where West Lothian sits.
What share of children grow up in a low income family, by local authority and nation, how much housing costs add, and where West Lothian sits.
How many households cannot keep warm at a reasonable cost, by region and local authority, and how the measure has changed since 2010.
Britain publishes the gambling industry quarterly to the penny, and cannot agree how many adults are harmed by it: two sets of official statistics differ sixfold and an independent review says a third of the gap is unexplained. It has counted 21 gambling related suicides ever, none since 2016, records gambling nowhere in its insolvency statistics, and publishes no NHS waiting times or outcomes. When the NHS came to spend the new levy it declined to use the prevalence data at all.
A British Resilience Index analysis ranking English local authorities on fuel poverty, child low income and drug deaths together, to show where the deepest hardship overlaps.
How many years of pay a home costs in every local authority: 7.63 times typical earnings in England, down from the 2021 peak but more than double the 1997 ratio.
134,210 households, including 176,130 children, were living in temporary accommodation on 31 December 2025, down slightly from the record set the previous quarter, the first quarterly fall since 2022, but still up 5.0 per cent on a year earlier.
No VAT on household electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, worth around £45 off the yearly cap. The £1,723 October bill taken apart into Ofgem's cost allowances, who gets the VAT cut and who does not, and the £14bn to £18.5bn levy path on OBR figures.
The storm overflow record: how often each water company spills, into which rivers, and whether it is getting better or worse.
Critical national infrastructure since 2024, five AI Growth Zones, tens of billions announced and a 50 GW connection queue, yet the first official electricity figures arrived only in June 2026 and no official count of the sites exists. In Scotland, where the energy case is strongest, a 7,200 comment planning file, a refused Edinburgh scheme and a ministerial takeback tell the backlash story.
The NATS flight data system failed on 8 September 2026, three years after the 2023 failure that hit over 700,000 passengers and cost £75m to £100m. What the official reviews found, how the 34 recommendations were signed off as complete, why NATS beats its delay target on a normal day, how UK airspace compares with Europe, and why Heathrow, 2,130 movements under its cap, cannot absorb a lost afternoon.
Single bus fares in England outside London capped at £2 for all of 2027, backed by £400m. The first £2 cap cut fares 9.1 per cent in a quarter and added about 5 per cent to journeys, while bus miles outside London are down 28 per cent since 2005.
Ofgem's reliability figures for all 14 electricity licence areas: 35.1 minutes lost per customer a year on average, a 6.6 times gap between London and the north of Scotland, 11 areas missing their targets, £50.9m in penalties, and the winter margin beside the Government's advice to prepare for days without power.
The Government is lifting the 1989 cap on its shareholdings in England's water companies. Who owns each company now, £76.3bn of net debt, £4.8bn of dividends in five years, Thames Water at 84.5 per cent gearing, a £639 average bill, and how publicly owned Scottish Water and NI Water compare.
The average Band D council tax bill in England is 2,392 pounds in 2026 to 2027, up 4.9 per cent: how it has climbed since 1993, where bills are highest and lowest, and who raised them most this year.
Everything the state has sold: 177 businesses, stakes and loan books from the 1953 steel sales to Bulb in 2022, 61 council airports and bus companies, 54 returns to public ownership, £64.1bn raised between 1979-80 and 1995-96, about 2.8 million council homes bought by tenants, public land, forests and playing fields. What the National Audit Office found, the dividends paid since, who owns the companies now, the services contracted out, and links to our deep dives on each sector.
Every announced cut of 100 or more UK jobs by a named employer since January 2025, 189 announcements covering 111,306 roles, each graded on a six point scale by what the employer itself said about AI. Employers tied 2,907 of those roles to AI or automation, only 800 of them to AI; a history section goes back to 1950; far more mention AI in passing, have it pinned on them by unions and the press, or deny it.
A personal analysis. Income tax and National Insurance raise more than half of what HMRC collects, and they are levied on wages. This page reads the official exposure estimates, works through what an 85 per cent workforce cut at a bank like Lloyds would mean for the Exchequer and for the people, and weighs three responses: taxing the machine, penalising offshoring and rewarding UK hiring, and a German style earnings related unemployment insurance.
Police recorded 91,987 malicious communications offences in 2025/26, down from 288,939 at the peak, a fall the statisticians attribute to a counting rule change. Three in a hundred closed investigations ended in a charge and the courts convicted 2,487 people under the four offences in 2025. Arrests by offence are published by no department: a campaign group’s 62,199 tally reconciles with the Ministry on convictions and can be checked against nothing on arrests. With sentencing, the official arrests ceiling and Scotland.
The Cabinet Office published its first Chronic Risks Analysis in July 2025: 26 risks, no scores, no time series. This page maps the 26 against the 71 indicators the index scores, reads 17 of the document's figures again against the latest official release, lists the high stress indicators it never names, and says which of the unmeasured risks already have an official series.
Your area
Find your council
Every English upper tier council has a sourced profile: children's services, temporary accommodation, school absence, deprivation and financial pressure, each figure traced to its official dataset.
The monthly reading
Follow the number over time
A single reading is a snapshot. The value is in the direction of travel. Once a month we send the new national score, what moved, and the sharpest findings from the data, with every figure traceable to its official source.
Data provenance
71 of 73 indicators are drawn from verified official sources, each labelled on its metric card. The remaining 2 are provisional placeholders, marked as seed where they appear, because no clean official figure is published yet; placeholders are shown for transparency and are excluded from all scoring.