UK Societal Resilience · June 2026

52/100Fragile28.8 min to midnight

A single measured reading across eleven national systems. The United Kingdom is fragile, and has held steady since the previous release.

Confidence Medium · 66 of 68 indicators verified

Release movements

What changed this release

Key deteriorations

MetricDomainScoreMovementConfidence
Fraud incidents (CSEW)Rule of Law and Safety83+67pts0.75
Drug-poisoning deathsPopulation Health93+42pts0.90
Rent to income ratioHousing and Household Formation52+36pts0.80
Suicide ratePopulation Health91+29pts0.85
EHC plan timelinessChildhood and Social Floor90+22pts0.85

Key improvements

MetricDomainScoreMovementConfidence
Public sector net borrowingFiscal Resilience3141pts0.90
Current budget deficitFiscal Resilience3034pts0.85
Headroom against fiscal rulesFiscal Resilience3233pts0.70
Business births minus closuresWork and Productivity2226pts0.80
Economic inactivity rate (16–64)Work and Productivity1524pts0.80

11 systems · measured

Each national system, on one scale

Weighting

What drives the headline figure

The headline is a weighted reading across all systems. This shows which carry the most weight once their stress score and domain weight are combined.

Population Health9.8 pt
Public Service Capacity7.2 pt
Housing and Household Formation6.7 pt
Childhood and Social Floor6.2 pt
Living Standards5.7 pt
Rule of Law and Safety5.1 pt
Work and Productivity3.0 pt
Trust and Wellbeing2.6 pt
Environment and Climate2.4 pt
Fiscal Resilience2.2 pt
Infrastructure1.1 pt

Historical trajectory

National stress, 2010–present

National trajectory

British Society Stress Index — Historical Trend

Current

52

Level-only modelled trajectory from verified official statistics — all nine domains are covered from 2018 (sparser before 2015). Each year's published values are re-scored on today's scale: it shows where stress sat, not a live historical index, and the current headline additionally reflects short-term trend and volatility, so it can differ from the final plotted point. COVID-era stress appears mainly from 2021, as the waiting-list, housing and court pressures it triggered entered the annual statistics with a lag.

Systemic risk

Systemic Risk Penalty

None applied

No systemic risk penalty applied this release — fewer than three domains are in the Critical band. The penalty activates when three or more domains simultaneously reach Critical (+5 pts) or Near Midnight (+10 pts), reflecting the increased probability that concurrent failures become self-reinforcing.

Partial live data

Live data coverage — 66 of 68 metrics from verified official sources; the rest are clearly-labelled seed data. Do not cite seed figures as final statistics.