Domain review

Public Service Capacity

Fragile

Measures whether the state can deliver core public services.

Domain score
60/100
+2pts
12-month movement+2 pts
~3-year movement(Feb 2026May 2026)no change
Data confidenceHigh0.858 component metrics

Public Service Capacity is currently rated Fragile. The domain score is driven primarily by Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W), Adult social care requests and A&E four-hour performance (England). Data confidence is high across its component metrics.

Component indicators

Public Service Capacity — Metrics

NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)

VerifiedOfficial
7.11million incomplete pathways

March 2026

61
Stress
Fragile
40
Trend
improving
95%
Confidence
High0.95
+2pts

Verified official value from NHS England (RTT incomplete pathways), accessed 2026-06-13.

A&E four-hour performance (England)

VerifiedOfficial
75.7% attendances within 4 hours (target 95)

May 2026

62
Stress
Fragile
58
Trend
deteriorating
95%
Confidence
High0.95
+16pts

Verified official value from NHS England (A&E 4-hour performance (all types)), accessed 2026-06-13.

Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)

VerifiedOfficial
72.8% treated within 62 days of referral (target 85)

March 2026

35
Stress
Strained
19
Trend
improving
90%
Confidence
High0.90
18pts

Verified official value from NHS England (Cancer 62-day standard), accessed 2026-06-13.

GP access pressure (England)

VerifiedOfficial (Development)
19.1% appointments more than 14 days after booking

April 2026

54
Stress
Fragile
50
Trend
stable
75%
Confidence
Medium0.75

Verified official value from NHS England (Appointments in General Practice) (GP appointments booked >2 weeks ahead), accessed 2026-06-13.

Delayed hospital discharges (England)

VerifiedAdministrative
13.8thousand patients per day not discharged when ready

January 2026

58
Stress
Fragile
50
Trend
stable
80%
Confidence
Medium0.80

Verified official value from NHS England (Acute Discharge SitRep) (patients no longer meeting criteria to reside), accessed 2026-06-13.

Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W)

VerifiedOfficial
78.3thousand open cases

End Jun 2025

85
Stress
Critical
60
Trend
deteriorating
90%
Confidence
High0.90
15pts

Verified official value from Ministry of Justice (Crown Court outstanding caseload), accessed 2026-06-13.

Adult social care requests

VerifiedOfficial
2.02million new requests for adult social care support

2024-25

63
Stress
Fragile
34
Trend
improving
80%
Confidence
Medium0.80
17pts

Verified official value from NHS England Digital / DHSC (nhse_ascfr), accessed 2026-06-14.

Adult social care vacancies

VerifiedIndependent
7% of adult social care roles vacant

2024-25

33
Stress
Strained
0
Trend
improving
75%
Confidence
Medium0.75
24pts

Verified official value from Skills for Care (skills_for_care), accessed 2026-06-14.

Historical values

Historical values

NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)

Latest

7.11million incomplete pathways

NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)million incomplete pathways — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

A&E four-hour performance (England)

Latest

75.7% attendances within 4 hours (target 95)

A&E four-hour performance (England)% attendances within 4 hours (target 95) — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)

Latest

72.8% treated within 62 days of referral (target 85)

Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)% treated within 62 days of referral (target 85) — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

GP access pressure (England)

Latest

19.1% appointments more than 14 days after booking

GP access pressure (England)% appointments more than 14 days after booking — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

Delayed hospital discharges (England)

Latest

13.8thousand patients per day not discharged when ready

Delayed hospital discharges (England)thousand patients per day not discharged when ready — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W)

Latest

78.3thousand open cases

Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W)thousand open cases — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

Adult social care requests

Latest

2.02million new requests for adult social care support

Adult social care requestsmillion new requests for adult social care support — reported values, not stress scores.

Historical values

Adult social care vacancies

Latest

7% of adult social care roles vacant

Adult social care vacancies% of adult social care roles vacant — reported values, not stress scores.

Data provenance

Sources for this domain

OrganisationDatasetTypeFrequencyLink
NHS EnglandConsultant-led RTT waiting timesOfficialMonthlySource ↗
NHS EnglandA&E attendances and emergency admissionsOfficialMonthlySource ↗
NHS EnglandCancer waiting timesOfficialMonthlySource ↗
NHS EnglandAppointments in general practiceOfficial (Development)MonthlySource ↗
NHS EnglandDischarge delays situation reportsAdministrativeMonthlySource ↗
Ministry of JusticeCriminal court statistics quarterlyOfficialQuarterlySource ↗
NHS England DigitalAdult Social Care Activity and Finance ReportOfficialAnnualSource ↗
Skills for CareThe state of the adult social care sector and workforce in EnglandIndependentAnnualSource ↗

How the Public Service Capacity domain is scored

The domain score is the median of the 8 component metric stress scores. Using the median reduces sensitivity to a single anomalous metric.

Each metric stress score is calculated as:

metric_stress = clamp(0.6 × level_score + 0.3 × trend_score + 0.1 × volatility_score, 0, 100)

The Public Service Capacity domain carries a weight of 12% in the national index. Full methodology: methodology page.

Sensitivity analysis

What would move this domain?

The Public Service Capacity domain score is most sensitive to its two highest-stress indicators. Meaningful improvement in either of the following metrics would be the most direct path to improving the domain score:

  • 85

    Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W)

    Total number of open Crown Court cases awaiting hearing in England and Wales, measuring the depth of the criminal justice backlog.

  • 63

    Adult social care requests

    New requests for adult social care support received by local authorities (millions), England, by financial year.