Domain review
Fiscal Resilience
Measures whether the state has room to respond to future shocks.
Fiscal Resilience is currently rated Strained. The domain score is driven primarily by Public sector net debt, Debt interest as share of revenue and Public sector net investment. Data confidence is medium across its component metrics.
Component indicators
Fiscal Resilience · Metrics
Public sector net debt
2025
Verified official value from ONS (HF6X/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Evidence file
Public sector net debt
Latest reading
2025
Scoring breakdown
Source
Public sector finances
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS
- Series ID
- HF6X/PUSF
- Frequency
- annual
- Accessed
- 13 August 2026
Known weakness
GDP is itself subject to revision, meaning the ratio can shift without any change in the stock of debt; the measure excludes off-balance-sheet liabilities.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS (HF6X/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Public sector net borrowing
2026
Verified official value from ONS (J5IJ/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Evidence file
Public sector net borrowing
Latest reading
2026
Scoring breakdown
Source
Public sector finances
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS
- Series ID
- J5IJ/PUSF
- Frequency
- quarterly
- Accessed
- 13 August 2026
Known weakness
Monthly estimates are heavily revised in subsequent months; cyclically adjusted borrowing (a better sustainability measure) requires OBR modelling not available monthly.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS (J5IJ/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Debt interest as share of revenue
2024–25
Verified official value from ONS / OBR (debt interest as % of receipts), accessed 2026-06-13.
Evidence file
Debt interest as share of revenue
Latest reading
2024–25
Scoring breakdown
Source
Economic and Fiscal Outlook
- Update frequency
- Biannual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS / OBR
- Series ID
- debt interest as % of receipts
- Frequency
- annual
- Accessed
- 13 June 2026
Known weakness
Biannual OBR publication means data is updated infrequently; the ratio is sensitive to short-term interest rate movements that may reverse without structural change.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS / OBR (debt interest as % of receipts), accessed 2026-06-13.
Current budget deficit
2026
Verified official value from ONS (JW2V/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Evidence file
Current budget deficit
Latest reading
2026
Scoring breakdown
Source
Public sector finances
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS
- Series ID
- JW2V/PUSF
- Frequency
- quarterly
- Accessed
- 13 August 2026
Known weakness
Current budget balance is the fiscal rule metric but its definition can be adjusted by the government, meaning the threshold for 'breach' is not fixed.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS (JW2V/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Public sector net investment
2026
Verified official value from ONS (MUB2/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Evidence file
Public sector net investment
Latest reading
2026
Scoring breakdown
Source
Public sector finances
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS
- Series ID
- MUB2/PUSF
- Frequency
- quarterly
- Accessed
- 13 August 2026
Known weakness
Investment spending is often subject to in-year underspend and reprinting; capital spending quality (what is being invested in) is not captured by the aggregate.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS (MUB2/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Headroom against fiscal rules
Nov 2025 EFO
Verified official value from OBR (headroom against the fiscal mandate), accessed 2026-06-13.
Evidence file
Headroom against fiscal rules
Latest reading
Nov 2025 EFO
Scoring breakdown
Source
Economic and Fiscal Outlook
- Update frequency
- Biannual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- OBR
- Series ID
- headroom against the fiscal mandate
- Frequency
- annual
- Accessed
- 13 June 2026
Known weakness
Highly model-dependent; OBR forecasts carry substantial uncertainty bands that are not reflected in the headline number, and rules themselves may be redefined.
Notes
Verified official value from OBR (headroom against the fiscal mandate), accessed 2026-06-13.
Historical values
Metric trends
Historical values
Public sector net debt
Latest
94.7% of GDPPublic sector net debt · % of GDP · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Public sector net borrowing
Latest
4.2% of GDPPublic sector net borrowing · % of GDP · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Debt interest as share of revenue
Latest
8.2% of public sector receiptsDebt interest as share of revenue · % of public sector receipts · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Current budget deficit
Latest
1.5% of GDP (positive = deficit)Current budget deficit · % of GDP (positive = deficit) · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Public sector net investment
Latest
2.6% of GDPPublic sector net investment · % of GDP · reported values, not stress scores.
Historical values
Headroom against fiscal rules
Latest
22£ billionHeadroom against fiscal rules · £ billion · reported values, not stress scores.
Data provenance
Sources for this domain
How the Fiscal Resilience domain is scored
The domain score is the median of the 6 component metric stress scores. Using the median reduces sensitivity to a single anomalous metric.
Each metric stress score is calculated as:
metric_stress = clamp(0.6 × level_score + 0.3 × trend_score + 0.1 × volatility_score, 0, 100)The Fiscal Resilience domain carries a weight of 7% in the national index. Full methodology: methodology page.
International context · vs OECD
Government gross debt (% of GDP)
Below the G7 average, though above 100% of GDP in absolute terms.
ONS / IMF WEO April 2024 ↗ · 2023 · context only, not part of the score
Faster signal · since the last release
Public sector net borrowing
Compared with the same month a year earlier (the standard fiscal comparison); April is seasonally the highest-borrowing month.
ONS ↗ · monthly · context only, not part of the score
Sensitivity analysis
What would move this domain?
The Fiscal Resilience domain score is most sensitive to its two highest-stress indicators. Meaningful improvement in either of the following metrics would be the most direct path to improving the domain score:
- 69
Public sector net debt
Public sector net debt as a percentage of GDP, the headline measure of government indebtedness relative to the size of the economy.
- 46
Debt interest as share of revenue
Central government debt interest payments as a share of total public sector receipts, measuring how much of tax revenue is consumed by debt servicing.
Related analysis
Deep dives related to Fiscal Resilience
The surge in councils needing emergency support, the section 114 bankruptcies, and which authorities are most stretched.
A cross-dataset analysis: rising high needs demand, the council bailout wave, and deprivation. The data shows high needs demand is not what is bankrupting most councils, and is not a poverty story.
How much usable reserve English councils have left, the fastest drawdowns, the most stretched authorities, rising council tax and weakening collection.
The average Band D bill at 2,392 pounds and up 4.9 per cent, how it has climbed since 1993, where bills are highest and lowest, and who raised them most this year.
What the UK government owes and borrows: public sector net debt near 95 per cent of GDP and about 2,835 billion pounds, this year's deficit, and the fuller balance sheet of net worth and net financial liabilities.
Total Managed Expenditure reached 1,360 billion pounds in 2025-26, 44.3 per cent of GDP, where it goes by function and department, and how the share of the economy has moved since 1950.
HMRC collected about 939 billion pounds in 2025-26, four taxes raise about 86 per cent of it, and the whole tax take is now about 36 per cent of GDP, the highest share since 1951.