Flood risk in England

The national picture

About 6.3 million properties at risk

The Environment Agency's 2024 national assessment finds that around 6.3 million properties in England, homes and businesses, are in areas at risk of flooding from one or a combination of sources: rivers, the sea and surface water. That total nets out the properties exposed to more than one source. It is not the sum of the separate source figures, because about 750,000 properties sit in areas at risk both from rivers or the sea and from surface water, and counting them once avoids double counting.

By source of flooding

Surface water reaches the most properties

Surface water, the rain that overwhelms drains and runs off hard ground before it can soak away, puts the largest number of properties in an area at risk, around 4.6 million. Rivers and the sea together account for around 2.4 million. About 750,000 properties fall inside both, so the two figures overlap and cannot simply be added. In practice a single flood often mixes sources, as high river levels can hold back surface water drainage.

The two source totals overlap by about 750,000 properties, so they sum to more than the 6.3 million headline. Groundwater is not included in the Environment Agency's new total. Source: Environment Agency NaFRA2 2024.

By how likely a flood is

Most at risk properties face a low annual chance

The assessment sorts properties into risk bands by the chance of flooding in any given year. High risk means worse than a 1 in 30 chance each year; very low risk means better than 1 in 1,000. About 367,900 properties are at high risk from rivers and the sea, and about 1.1 million are at high risk from surface water. Most properties in an area at risk sit in the lower bands, where flooding is less likely in any single year but still possible over a lifetime.

Present day figures without climate change. Rivers and the sea are assessed across four bands; surface water is not assessed at the very low band, so no very low figure is published for it. High risk means worse than a 1 in 30 chance in any year. Source: Environment Agency NaFRA2 2024.

Across the regions

Where the high risk properties are

The Environment Agency publishes the high risk properties, those facing worse than a 1 in 30 chance of flooding each year, broken down by the nine English regions. The bars below combine the high risk counts from rivers and the sea and from surface water. London carries the largest high risk count, driven almost entirely by surface water. The East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber and the South East also stand out. The Environment Agency does not publish a total across all risk bands by region, and there is no local authority table of property counts in this release.

High risk band only (worse than a 1 in 30 annual chance), present day. Combined count of rivers and sea plus surface water. The rivers and sea regional figures sum to 367,900 and the surface water regional figures sum to 1,071,800. Figures for the lower bands and for individual local authorities are not published in this release. Source: Environment Agency NaFRA2 2024.

Looking to mid century

Could rise to around 8 million by the 2050s

With climate change the Environment Agency estimates the total number of properties in areas at risk from rivers and the sea or surface water could rise to around 8 million by the middle of the century, roughly 1 in 4 properties in England. Properties at risk from rivers and the sea could climb from 2.4 million to about 3.1 million, and those at risk from surface water from 4.6 million to about 6.1 million, with the overlap between the two sources growing to about 1 million properties.

Questions this raises

For flood policy