rule of law and safety · the national record
Prisons in England and Wales
England and Wales locks up more people per capita than any western European country other than Scotland. Prisons are at 96 per cent of useable capacity; the population is projected to exceed operational capacity by late 2026. Nearly 70 per cent of those released after a short custodial sentence are convicted of a further offence within twelve months.
How to read this
Population figures are the quarterly snapshot at 31 March 2026 from HMPPS Offender Management Statistics. Capacity and occupancy are from the weekly population briefing for 29 June 2026. Reoffending rates are for the April to June 2024 proven reoffending cohort, measured over the twelve months following disposal. Assault and self harm figures cover the twelve months ending March 2026, and deaths in custody the twelve months ending June 2026, from the quarterly update published on 30 July 2026. Geographic reoffending covers July 2023 to June 2024 (rolling annual, adults and children combined).
Sources: HMPPS / MoJ, OGL v3. All figures reconciled to primary data files. See Sources and method below.
capacity and population
Prisons are nearly full and the population is rising
At 31 March 2026, England and Wales held 87,342 people in custody, against a useable operational capacity of 89,120 -- an occupancy of 96.2 per cent. Central projections put the population at 91,400 by September 2026 and 99,600 by September 2029, well above current capacity. Of those held, 81.1 per cent (70,829) are serving sentences and 18.3 per cent (16,025) are on remand.
Largest establishments (population, 31 Mar 2026)
Establishments with the largest populations at 31 March 2026. Source: HMPPS Prison Population Data Tool.
reoffending
Short sentences are the least effective intervention
In the April to June 2024 cohort, 29.6 per cent of all offenders given any disposal were proven to have reoffended within twelve months. The rate for those released from a custodial sentence of six months or under was 69.5 per cent -- nearly five times the rate for those given a caution (14.4 per cent). Longer sentences show markedly lower reoffending: those sentenced to twelve months or more reoffended at 23.2 per cent, because they serve time, receive more rehabilitation, and carry a greater deterrent effect.
Proven reoffending rate (proportion of offenders with at least one proven reoffence in the twelve month follow up period). Cohort: April to June 2024. Source: MoJ Proven Reoffending Statistics.
reoffending by area
Where reoffending is highest and lowest
Proven reoffending rates vary almost threefold across local authorities in England and Wales (rolling year July 2023 to June 2024, all ages). Teesside towns consistently rank among the highest; rural counties in the south and Wales record the lowest rates.
Highest reoffending rates
Lowest reoffending rates
County total areas with 200 or more offenders in the cohort. Small areas excluded to avoid instability from small counts. Source: MoJ Proven Reoffending Geographic Data Tool.
safety in custody
Violence has plateaued near the pre-Covid peak; self harm still far above it
In the twelve months to March 2026 there were 30,820 assault incidents in prison, effectively unchanged on the 30,849 recorded a year earlier. Those two years are the highest since the pandemic, though both sit below the pre-Covid peak of 32,074 reached in the twelve months to March 2019. Self harm incidents fell to 70,632 from the series peak of 77,904 a year earlier, but remain far above any pre-Covid level. In the twelve months to June 2026, 359 people died in prison custody, down from 401. Women's prisons carry a disproportionate share of self harm incidents, reflecting the concentration of complex needs in the female estate.
Assault incidents per year (12-month rolling, to March)
All assault incidents in prison establishments in England and Wales, 12-month period ending March each year, March 2016 to March 2026. Pre-Covid peak (Mar-19): 32,074. Source: HMPPS Safety in Custody Statistics.
Self harm incidents per year (12-month rolling, to March)
Self harm incidents in prison establishments in England and Wales, 12-month period ending March each year, March 2016 to March 2026. Women's prisons (Styal, Eastwood Park) account for a disproportionate share. Source: HMPPS Safety in Custody Statistics.
key questions
What should we be asking?
- 1.
If short custodial sentences produce a proven reoffending rate of nearly 70 per cent, why does England and Wales continue to use them at scale rather than expanding community alternatives?
- 2.
The prison population is projected to exceed operational capacity by late 2026. What is the plan for managing the shortfall, and at what cost to safety and rehabilitation programmes?
- 3.
Assaults in prison have plateaued at the highest levels since the pandemic, just short of the pre-Covid peak. What systemic changes are needed in staffing, regime, and environment to reduce violence?
- 4.
Women make up under 5 per cent of the prison population but generate a disproportionate share of self harm incidents. Should women with complex needs be diverted from custody altogether?
- 5.
Reoffending in Middlesbrough (42 per cent) is nearly three times the rate in Central Bedfordshire (15 per cent). What local factors drive this gap, and what would it take to close it?
Sources & method
Data provenance
- HMPPS -- Offender Management Statistics Quarterly: Prison Population 31 March 2026 ↗· OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Population and Capacity Briefing 29 June 2026 (weekly population bulletin) ↗· OGL v3
- MoJ -- Proven Reoffending Statistics April to June 2024 ↗· OGL v3
- MoJ -- Proven Reoffending: Geographic data tool (July 2013 to June 2024) ↗· OGL v3
- HMPPS -- Safety in Custody Statistics, quarterly update to March 2026 (assaults and self harm to March 2026, deaths to June 2026) ↗· OGL v3
- MoJ -- Prison Population Projections 2025 to 2030 ↗· OGL v3
Caveats & data notes
- Population figures (31 March 2026) are from the quarterly snapshot; the capacity and occupancy figures (96.2%) are from the weekly briefing for 29 June 2026, using that week's population against useable operational capacity of 89,120.
- Proven reoffending is measured on the cohort of offenders who received a disposal in April to June 2024, followed up for twelve months. A 'proven' reoffence is a further conviction or caution -- it does not capture undetected crime.
- The geographic reoffending league uses 'County total' areas with at least 200 offenders in the July 2023 to June 2024 rolling cohort. Smaller areas are excluded because low counts make percentages unstable.
- Safety in custody figures cover all prison establishments in England and Wales in the twelve months to March 2026. Deaths figures cover the twelve months to June 2026 (deaths run one quarter ahead of assaults and self harm in this publication). Assault and self harm figures for the twelve months to March 2025 are revised, and those to March 2026 are provisional, as marked by the publisher.
- Projections are the Ministry of Justice central scenario as published in Prison Population Projections 2025 to 2030. They assume current sentencing trends and legislative plans; the range of uncertainty is wide.
- All data: Open Government Licence v3 (OGL v3). Reconciled to primary files on 29 June 2026.
Every figure on this page traces to its official source. Share it as it stands.
Keep going
Related deep dives
Every offence recorded by police from 2012/13 to 2024/25: what gets recorded, what has gone up and down, and where rates are highest by force area.
How exposed the UK is online: breaches by business size and across education, record fraud against the public, the cost to the economy, the NCSC year, government's own resilience and the skills gap.
An estimated 3.8 million adults, 7.8 per cent, experienced domestic abuse in England and Wales in the year to March 2025, against 816,493 police recorded crimes, with separate non-comparable totals for Scotland and Northern Ireland and just 7.3 per cent of recorded crimes ending in a charge.
The monthly reading
Get the next one by email
One email a month: the national resilience score, what moved, and the newest analyses like this one, plus The Quarterly Record four times a year. Every figure traced to its official source.