Monthly Review
British Resilience Index
Monthly Operating Review · August 2026
National position
Summary
As of the August 2026 release, the British Resilience Index stands at 52 out of 100, a Fragile reading. The national score has risen 1 point since the previous release.
Population Health remains the largest single contributor to national stress, with a domain score of 84. Public Service Capacity and Housing and Household Formation also sit in the Fragile range. The single highest-stress indicator is Drug-poisoning deaths (93).
The largest movement now in the index is Drug-poisoning deaths, which deteriorated by 42 points at its most recent data update. Across the indicator set, 17 have deteriorated and 27 improved by a material margin (5 points or more) at their latest data point; most sources publish annually or quarterly, so these movements accumulate over months rather than describing a single month. 13 indicators received new source data since the previous release.
Data confidence is highest in official statistics series and lowest in official statistics in development measures; the overall confidence score is 0.83.
Indicator changes
Material Movements
Each movement compares an indicator's latest official observation with the one before it, its most recent data step. Most sources publish annually or quarterly, so these movements accumulate over months, not within the release month, and an unchanged row can repeat across monthly reviews until new data lands. Scores are stress readings out of 100; higher means more stress.
| Metric | Domain | From | To | Movement (latest data step) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | 51 | 93 | +42 pts |
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 72 | 31 | −41 pts |
| Storm overflow spill duration (England) | Environment and Climate | 62 | 23 | −39 pts |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 16 | 52 | +36 pts |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 64 | 30 | −34 pts |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 65 | 32 | −33 pts |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | 70 | 38 | −32 pts |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 62 | 91 | +29 pts |
| Business births minus closures | Work and Productivity | 48 | 22 | −26 pts |
| Theft, robbery and burglary (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 51 | 25 | −26 pts |
| Economic inactivity rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 39 | 15 | −24 pts |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | 76 | 52 | −24 pts |
| Household food insecurity | Living Standards | 48 | 25 | −23 pts |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | 61 | 84 | +23 pts |
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Environment and Climate | 11 | 33 | +22 pts |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | 65 | 86 | +21 pts |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | 41 | 62 | +21 pts |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | 47 | 67 | +20 pts |
| Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24) | Childhood and Social Floor | 73 | 53 | −20 pts |
| Chronic loneliness | Trust and Wellbeing | 40 | 60 | +20 pts |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | 82 | 64 | −18 pts |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | 80 | 63 | −17 pts |
| Persistent school absence (England) | Childhood and Social Floor | 67 | 50 | −17 pts |
| Avoidable mortality | Population Health | 50 | 33 | −17 pts |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | 47 | 63 | +16 pts |
| Children looked after | Childhood and Social Floor | 66 | 52 | −14 pts |
| Public sector net investment | Fiscal Resilience | 24 | 37 | +13 pts |
| Employment rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 39 | 27 | −12 pts |
| Regular formal volunteering | Trust and Wellbeing | 56 | 44 | −12 pts |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | 97 | 86 | −11 pts |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | 90 | 79 | −11 pts |
| Neighbourhood belonging | Trust and Wellbeing | 52 | 42 | −10 pts |
| Household arrears and insolvency pressure | Living Standards | 41 | 50 | +9 pts |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | 62 | 71 | +9 pts |
| Delayed hospital discharges (England) | Public Service Capacity | 56 | 65 | +9 pts |
| Trust in national government | Trust and Wellbeing | 56 | 47 | −9 pts |
| GP access pressure (England) | Public Service Capacity | 54 | 46 | −8 pts |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | 80 | 73 | −7 pts |
| Feeling safe after dark | Trust and Wellbeing | 26 | 33 | +7 pts |
| Energy bill affordability pressure | Living Standards | 52 | 46 | −6 pts |
| Adult social care vacancies | Public Service Capacity | 33 | 27 | −6 pts |
| Offences resulting in charge or summons (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 40 | 46 | +6 pts |
| Income inequality (Gini, disposable) | Living Standards | 43 | 49 | +6 pts |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | 83 | 78 | −5 pts |
System overview
Domain-Level Position
| Domain | Score | Band | Movement (latest data step) | Weight | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population Health | 84 | +27 pts | 12% | Drug-poisoning deaths | |
| Housing and Household Formation | 62 | +7 pts | 11% | Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | |
| Public Service Capacity | 61 | +5 pts | 12% | Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | |
| Rule of Law and Safety | 56 | +2 pts | 9% | Fraud incidents (CSEW) | |
| Childhood and Social Floor | 54 | −12 pts | 11% | EHC plan timeliness | |
| Infrastructure | 47 | +8 pts | 3% | Rail cancellations (GB) | |
| Trust and Wellbeing | 47 | −9 pts | 6% | Chronic loneliness | |
| Living Standards | 40 | −3 pts | 13% | Household arrears and insolvency pressure | |
| Fiscal Resilience | 34 | −31 pts | 7% | Public sector net debt | |
| Environment and Climate | 33 | −18 pts | 5% | Bathing water quality | |
| Work and Productivity | 27 | −20 pts | 11% | Zero-hours contracts |
Stress attribution
Primary Stress Contributors
Key deteriorations this release
Key deteriorations
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | 93 | +42 pts | 0.90 |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 52 | +36 pts | 0.80 |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 91 | +29 pts | 0.85 |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | 84 | +23 pts | 0.75 |
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Environment and Climate | 33 | +22 pts | 0.85 |
Weighted contribution to national score
Positive movements
Improving Indicators
Key improvements
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 31 | −41 pts | 0.90 |
| Storm overflow spill duration (England) | Environment and Climate | 23 | −39 pts | 0.80 |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 30 | −34 pts | 0.85 |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 32 | −33 pts | 0.70 |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | 38 | −32 pts | 0.85 |
Risk register
Critical Risks
Population Health is rated Critical (score 84). The primary contributor is Drug-poisoning deaths (stress score 93).
| Risk | Domain | Severity | Trend | Confidence | Evidence | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | deteriorating | High0.90 | 93.90 deaths per million population (age-standardised), 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | deteriorating | High0.85 | 11.40 age-standardised deaths per 100,000, 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | High0.90 | 4793 people, Autumn 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 3.59 % of people in employment on a zero-hours contract, Jan-Mar 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | deteriorating | High0.90 | 80.10 thousand open cases, End Mar 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | stable | |
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 4.50 million incidents per year, YE Mar 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 22.60 % of adults aged 16-64, 2023/4 (NHS England / NatCen). | escalate | |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 46.10 % of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks, 2025 (Department for Education). | stable | |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | High0.90 | 135.58 thousand households, Q1 2026 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | stable | Medium0.80 | 2.79 million people, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.95 | 7.27 million incomplete pathways, June 2026 (NHS England). | monitor | |
| Public sector net debt | Fiscal Resilience | stable | High0.90 | 94.70 % of GDP, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | deteriorating | High0.90 | 4.90 %, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | monitor | |
| Delayed hospital discharges (England) | Public Service Capacity | deteriorating | Medium0.80 | 14.05 thousand patients per day not discharged when ready, July 2026 (NHS England). | monitor | |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | improving | High0.85 | 87.30 % of bathing waters rated Excellent or Good, 2025 (Environment Agency). | stable | |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | improving | Medium0.80 | 2.02 million new requests for adult social care support, 2024-25 (NHS England Digital). | stable | |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 208.60 thousand net additional dwellings (England), 2024–25 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | monitor | |
| Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 3.92 gap index, 2024 (Department for Education). | stable | |
| Children's mental-health caseload | Childhood and Social Floor | deteriorating | Low0.65 | 538.80 thousand children with an open referral to CYP mental-health services, June 2026 (NHS England). | monitor | |
| Crown Court timeliness (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | deteriorating | High0.85 | 346 median days, offence to completion, Q1 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | monitor | |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | deteriorating | High0.85 | 4.10 % trains cancelled or part-cancelled, 2024–25 (Office of Rail and Road). | monitor | |
| Social housing waiting lists (England) | Housing and Household Formation | stable | Medium0.75 | 1.34 million households, 31 Mar 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Chronic loneliness | Trust and Wellbeing | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 8 % adults often or always lonely, May 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | monitor |
Data provenance
Data Quality Notes
The strongest tier by mean confidence is official statistics (mean 0.85, 54 indicators).
The weakest tier is official statistics in development (mean 0.7, 2 indicators).
3 indicators carry low data confidence (below 0.70) and require additional scrutiny.
54 of 73 indicators are sourced from official statistics, providing a robust data foundation.
Analytical queries
Open Questions
- 01.Is the Children's mental-health caseload signal real, or an artefact of Published as 'in contact with services' (open referrals), which includes those receiving care as well as those waiting: not a pure waiting list; counting methodologies vary across NHS trusts.?
Forward look
Next Review Focus
Indicators requiring close monitoring before the next release.
Drug-poisoning deaths
Deteriorating; stress score 93 and rising, requires monitoring.
Suicide rate
Deteriorating; stress score 91 and rising, requires monitoring.
Zero-hours contracts
Deteriorating; stress score 86 and rising, requires monitoring.
Fraud incidents (CSEW)
Deteriorating; stress score 84 and rising, requires monitoring.
Common mental-health condition prevalence
Deteriorating; stress score 84 and rising, requires monitoring.
NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)
Deteriorating; stress score 71 and rising, requires monitoring.
Process notes
Methodology & Source Updates
Methodology changes
- A fixed release policy now applies: each monthly release is published in the first week of the month with a data cutoff of the 25th of the preceding month, and is published every month regardless of how many indicators received new data. This release is a transition edition with a cutoff of 13 August 2026.
Source updates
- 71 of 73 indicators in this release are drawn from verified official sources; the remaining 2 are provisional placeholders, marked as seed and excluded from scoring.
Full methodology: /methodology · Data sources: /data-sources